Uri Attack: Is it right time to punish Pakistan?

Uri Attack: Is it right time to punish Pakistan?

As we talk 18 soldiers have died and 30 soldiers are injured. The response from the PM and govt is pretty strong worded. There is a huge outcry for a decisive action; however there are voices which fear that any action may result in escalation of tension between two nuclear armed neighbors. It’s a tough call, can an escalation result in a nuclear war or internationalization of the Kashmir issue. What are the options before India and what are the pros and cons of such actions?

Has Baluchistan Issue irked Pakistan?

The recent attacks have come after PM Modi made a reference to the Baluchistan issue? The best way for Pakistani army to deflect the issue back to Kashmir was such an attack; it achieves multiple purposes for Pakistan.  First it brings back attention to Kashmir, demoralizes the Indian army and it humiliates the elected govt. in India. It also gives voices to certain segment in India to push the govt. to go back and talk to Pakistan. It looks like Pakistan has made a strategic move which has pushed India in a corner. This is indeed a challenging situation however if we quickly look through at the various options that Indian govt. can exercise it does not look to be very well thought out by Pakistan.

India has plenty of option to retaliate and it should start with bringing back the focus to Baluchistan. Was the recent attack a response by the Pakistani army against the Indian PM raising the issue human rights conditions in Baluchistan and POK, could India point out these obvious links and reinforce its commitment to human rights for the people in these region.

Surgical Strikes: Will it result in nuclear war?

The second question in the mind of the people is can India make surgical strikes inside the terrorist camps in POK? This is a complex question, while technically the POK is Indian Territory; however the China Pakistan economic corridor passing through it makes any attacks on this region extremely sensitive issue. The generals in Pakistan have also held the threat of a nuclear war in case India decides to strike back. The situation looks threatening and no government would like to jeopardize the growth India is achieving.

However the same arguments that we are holding for not doing strikes actually work in India’s favor. Pakistan today is globally isolated at each and every international forum. Afghanistan and Bangladesh has both accused Pakistan of a sponsor of terrorism in their country. There is little support Pakistan has left in US congress where relations with India has taken a priority and there have been multiple occasions where aid and arms to Pakistan has been cut out by the US congress. Even the Saudis have dumped Pakistan.

The only support that Pakistan is getting these days is from China, but the question is will China back Pakistan in case there is a conflict like situation along the LOC. The CPEC is being protected by 15000 Pakistani soldiers along with 7000 Chinese workers working over it. Leave the nuclear bomb threat even escalation of tension and war like situation with India will make China extremely uncomfortable and the CPEC unviable.The truth is that in case of a surgical strike Pakistan may not even be able to escalate it to the level of war without killing the CPEC project and alienating China forever. This will be a big blow to Pakistani economy. Most likely Pakistan would do what India did after the parliament attacks.They may put up a huge buildup of army across the Indian border and there may be several ceasefire violations for some coming months. Frankly speaking the whole move by Pakistan is based on the assumption that India would not strike back. In case India strikes back no one in Pakistan seems to be aware or have thought through of what is going to happen. The only head that may roll may be the head of Nawaz Sharif. The nuclear threat thus seems to be an overly overblown and that should not be the reason for India to hold back.

Impact on Indian economy?

While the likelihood of the situation escalating is negligible if it happens it may bring economic hardship for India. The Indian economy has still not recovered fully from the follies of the UPA era and any tensions at the border may hit FDI, tourism and services industry and may thus delay the full industrial recovery which is still a few quarters away. However there is never a right time to take such calls, on the positive side this is the time for least impact. The govt. has been successfully able to get the GST through and there is no big legislative or economic agenda on its platter in the near future. Global Oil prices and commodity prices are still close to comfort level in case the govt. decides to mop up extra revenue to deal with escalation.

International fallout

Does India risks internationalizing the Kashmir issue if it goes for surgical strike in the terrorist camps in the POK area? Well for time being the Internalization of Kashmir issue may happen , however looking at the global isolation Pakistan is facing and the little appetite countries across the world are having for support of terrorism the maximum the world may ask India and Pakistan is to seat and talk. India can clearly do that, it has never shied away from talking on Kashmir and talks can restart with the threat of terrorism going away. However one casualty of any escalation would be India’s quest for NSG seat as any escalation may antagonize China which may delay it a little further. However a strong response from India will also put India in a new light which may help India to negotiate from a position of strength on other issues in coming years.

Domestic Political Impact

One word of caution on the political side of the question ,while strong response to Pakistan may for a little while bring up the moral of the Indian people and the supporters of the govt,  Economic hardships last much longer and may not really be a winning factor in near future if in case it impacts inflation(this scenario however may not occur as Pakistan may not like to escalate the issue beyond a certain point, war seems to be a distant possibility)  However Lok Sabha elections are still 2.5 years away and whichever way things go it is a safe period for the govt. to take such an action.

The govt. must be weighing all these options in the coming days ahead, will we see some action? Well let’s wait for the UN general assembly session to get over.