It’s less than 15 days when PM Modi offered a hand of
friendship to bring normalcy in relations with Pakistan by visiting Lahore.
While it was expected that there would be some challenges to the peace talk
ahead it was not expected that it would happen so soon. The debates on the
terror attacks are on expected lines. Some are of the view that talks should
continue while others are opposing it. Again and again it is being repeated
that Pakistani Army and ISI are not on the same page as Pakistani PM Nawaz
Sharif. The kind of sophisticated attack that was being carried by the
terrorists on the Pathankot air force base leaves little doubt that the plan
was orchestrated and handled from the highest echelon of Pakistani military and
Intelligence services. The question being floated is that if the army is not on
board should we continue to engage with the civilian government to strengthen
it or should we try to get the army onboard? It looks like India is totally
clueless to this Pakistani provocation and how to deal with it. Modi government
is stuck between a rock and a hard place with no one being able to tell how can
we inflict a cost to this Pakistani adventurism and still not push the sub-continent
to the dangers of a war and derail India’s growth story. Some are asking if
India can carry out surgical strikes in the terrorists’ camps in POK, but is
that a viable option. Meanwhile the clamor for a covert operation to neutralize
terrorists is growing everyday but such capabilities takes years of effort and
groundwork and we are not sure if India still has such capabilities. Also till
the time we do not have such capabilities what options do we have against Pakistan.
Also the question on why is the Pakistani Army not on board with the civilian
government to bring peace to Pakistan has not been explored properly and till
the time we do not understand that aspect we may not be able to put a cost on
Pakistani adventurism.
Why ISI and Pakistani
Army may not support peace talks?
While the hatred of Pakistani army and ISI against India may
have historical roots with multiple defeats against India it is something more
pressing which is making the Pakistani military establishment jittery. It is no
doubt that the enemy is trying provoke India to take a strong action against it
or trying to force us swallow the humiliation these terrorist attacks do to the
pride of a civilian elected government. Both the options have been very well weighted
in by the Pakistani military establishment or a section of the military not on
board to have peaceful relations with India. The question is if we take a
strong action against Pakistan does it help the Pakistani military? In my last
article I mentioned how Modi government in a big strategic move has provided
attack helicopters to the Afghanistani army. This particular aspect has not
been debated fully and its strategic importance has been neglected. To put
things in prospective it is important to discuss Operation Zarb-e-Azb which
is a joint military offensive being conducted by
the Pakistan Armed Forces against
various militant groups in north west Pakistan. Over
last decade Pakistani army has lost around 6000 security personnel and more
than 50000 civilians in this war which is yet not finished. As per their own report
from the Ministry of Finance (MoF)
statistics and mathematical data survey collections, the economy had suffered
direct and indirect losses of up to ~$67.93 billion since 2001 due to its role
as a "frontline state" in the American war against terror.
According to the MoF-issued Pakistan Economic Survey in 2010–2011,
"Pakistan has never witnessed such a devastating social and economic
upheaval in its industry, even after dismemberment of the country by a direct war with India in 1971.Things
have since then improved there however the war is still far from over and new
troubles have started appearing from Baluchistan. The Pakistani army is
suffering on two fronts its losing men and its losing its prestige among the people
of Pakistan. A war or a small conflict with India is the best possible way out
of this mess of fighting the jihadi forces, putting the internal disturbances
in Baluchistan to rest plus it also brings back the global attention on Kashmir
issue, in case India does not resorts to an offensive strategy the Pakistani
army has nothing to lose by inflicting damage to India and Indian assets by
continuing the proxy war and then putting the onus of continuing the peace talk
entirely on India. In fact a long term peace with India reduces the role of Pakistani
army in the overall equilibrium of power politics in Pakistan and not everyone in
Pak military may be conducive to that.
Therefore the option of carrying out a surgical strike in
Pakistan on the terrorist camps should be weighed in properly as any such
action by India will bring together
these jihadi forces together and provide them the motivation to attack India
when they are currently busy killing each other. The next question therefore is
if not an offensive action against Pakistan which may actually work in favor of
Pakistani army which option will be the one that the Pakistani army will not
want India to exercise. The attack on air force assets in Pathankot and an
attack on Indian consulate on Afghanistan here give us some ample clues. It
looks like Pakistani army hates the idea of India having any strategic say in
Afghanistan and it is exactly this option that India should exercise.
Multi Front Options –
Afghanistan, Baluchistan and Covert Operations
While Modi government made a significant change in its stand
by providing the attack helicopters to the Afghanistani army the time has now
come to take it further and provide a clearer military support to the afghan army.
India need not fight this battle on its soil and rather strengthen the Afghanistan
to stabilize the region and reduce the role of Pakistani army in that region. While
till the time Americans are there providing ground troops India should not be
getting up there too fast and too soon but an effort to start building a small
presence with clear intent to scale it up in case of terror attacks on India
will be the biggest nightmare for the Pakistani military . An immediate action
on this front will give a strong message to Pakistan as well as to the domestic
consistency of Modi who elected this government on the premise of a strong Indian
action in case of a terrorist attack.
It is also time India rethinks about its strategy on the
issue of Baluchistan. Baluch’s are looking for help and an Indian stand on Baluchistan
will not just bring global attention on the plight of this issue it will also help
India in dealing with Chinese investment in POK and Baluchistan where the
Chinese have overlooked India’s core concern in POK.
The last is the capability to be able to carry out a covert
operation to neutralize the terrorists in Pakistan. We are not aware but such a
thing might be getting worked out but till that time that happens it is time
that some of the options discussed above be looked into seriously.
