Peshawar Attack: Nothing will change

As 3 days of mourning gets over in Pakistan so will be the hopes that this tragedy is going change anything in Pakistan or will this change anything for the sympathizers of terrorism across the world. The ranting will go on and the lovers of jihad in the name of religion will find new reasons to kill and spread mayhem. And for them they will keep finding some reasons to keep going, sometimes the reason will be Iraq, sometimes Israel, and sometimes Kashmir, gujrat etc. That Pakistan will now be using terror victim card more than ever and will play politics over these dead kids is no guess. The narrative will change but not the agenda. For distortion is so deep into their psyche and hatred so rooted in their thoughts that no less than a messiah will be needed cleanse that. But even a messiah needs someone's call and no one is complaining here, it will be business as usual. This was coming and will keep coming in the coming years for when a nation names its missiles as gauri and ghaznavi they forget that the piece of land they live on was tyrannized by same ghauri and ghaznavi's. That when a nation on the banks of Indus tries to find out its root in the invaders coming from foreign land who plundered their land you don't know to laugh on them or cry for them. For who will stand against the terrorists when the nation is ferried in special run trains to hear Hafez saeed.

16th Dec was no ordinary day. On this day in 1971 it became clear that east Pakistan would become a new nation , After millions of rapes and massacre Bangladesh was born, if they didn't learn then what they will learn now.  They choose to believe in conspiracy theories then and even now it will be easier to live in denial because truth has the tendency to ask difficult questions. Taliban says we did this because you killed our families, isn’t this the same reason they give to support terrorism in India to kill innocents. Is it not the same poisonous theory they used to feed in the minds of their kids? Today that same poison has taken them away. Did they had any sympathy for the yazdis that were massacred in Iraq, were they not children of anyone were they not innocent, were the 166 people killed in Mumbai not innocent. They will have many more of such uncomfortable questions, and to arrive at an answer they will have to answer each one of them, it will therefore be better to live in denial. People had warned them that when you keep snakes in your backyard one day they do come to bite you but who cares. The army owns the nation and the nation do not seem to care, who are we then to reason them? When even a hockey match win is celebrated as a war between civilizations and when no reason is a reason enough then what happens is a tragedy.

And back home in India there were candle light vigils against Israel earlier but then now against whom those candle light vigils will be taken up ... Taliban, Pakistan, ISI or terrorism in name of religion. But let’s not worry they will find out an answer to this also. An attempt will be made by the so called secularists to draw a line between Good Taliban -bad Taliban, Pakistan and terrorism and blur the line between freedom of speech and freedom to spread the agenda of hatred. Men from congress were crying for the rights of free speech of Mehdi Masroor Biswas, they will have more job at hand.

The question is should we sympathize with them when they themselves don't sympathize with themselves, well we can't avoid we want to live for hope, we want to stand with them in this hour of grief, we don't want to pose these uncomfortable questions at this moment, we don't want them to answer this to the world but then they do need to ask these questions to themselves and get a clear answer in their hearts because only that could be a true tribute to the innocents who never lived long enough .And somewhere in our hearts we want to believe that things will change , it’s our dream but before we start believing in our own dreams that this will change something and waste too much of time on that lets make our border stronger because the moment the mourning will be over the firing on the borders will start.

Some experiments on road worth doing

For 3 years every time I drove in Hyderabad from Miyapur where I lived to Hi-tech city where I worked I had just one question in my mind, why is there so much traffic even though the roads are so wide. Yes it is true, after staying in Bangalore for years when I came to Hyderabad the roads looked amazingly wide and yet the traffic did not seem to move. However my recent stay in US gave me some clue as how could we look to solve some traffic problem in India. Another realization I had is that most of the solutions to traffic problem in India does not need extremely costly solutions. Hardly 10-15 percent of extra investment on our roads can make our roads extremely safe and can substantially increase the average speed of the traffic. Coming down to specifics below are some of the points I felt we can introduce in our roads to make them world class.

Issuing of Driver licenses

Yes this should be the number one issue which we should address. The whole system of awarding a driver’s license is flawed in India and it urgently needs radical overhaul.

Comprehensive booklet/CDs/Recorder

What is needed is a small but comprehensive guide/booklet (50-60 pages at most) with all the traffic signs and rules compiled in it. Recently a video went viral on Facebook where vehicles were seen not giving way to an ambulance, while people’s apathy is one reason for that behavior a more important reason for such behavior is ignorance. Most drivers in India will fail to answer the question as to which side should they move the vehicle in case they hear an ambulance siren behind them. And the reason behind that are the poor training programs when they were granted the license. We must therefore strengthen our program and fix the knowledge gap among drivers. A well-documented book with all the rules and signs , with rules telling where to park , what do in case of hearing an emergency vehicle or an ambulance behind you , who has the first right to take a left turn or a right turn, how to merge on a highway , what to do in case of a crash or break down, what to do when you see a school bus  and numerous such issues will go a long way to make the driver well informed about the decision he is taking on road and will also increase the general safety and speed of all vehicles. Once the temporary license exam is fixed next we need to go ahead and fix the way permanent licenses are awarded. While like in US in India also we have the two level exams where we first get a temporary license and then get a permanent license the way it is implemented on ground leaves a lot more to be desired.

Temporary License

The first level of temporary exam should be made a comprehensive knowledge test of all the rules, regulations, signs etc. all of which should be addressed in the driver’s guide/booklet. The test can be conducted online on various private authorized prometric centers. The govt should simply move out from the business of conducting exams so that no one in the country gets a license based on influence. However conducting such a test in India throws lot of challenges, a lot of our population is uneducated and therefore online written objective type tests may not be suitable for all. However for such candidates the govt can come up with visual CD’s and recorders in all regional languages which the candidate can listen at home and then come prepared for the exam which can again be a computer based test but where the candidate listen to the questions and then an interactive computer program can help the candidate to find out the correct answer.

Permanent License

What I admired in US was the way they take the permanent license exam. In a two-step process the candidate is required to either clear a maneuverability test or a parallel parking test (both these require extensive practice with parking cones and by the time the candidate learns to do these he/she actually gets a very good grip of the handling the car in both forward and reverse directions). In the second part of the test the instructor asks the candidate to drive on road where instructor observes the candidate if he is following the rules or not. On successful completion of both these steps the candidate is cleared to drive independently on road. Getting a license in US or any other developed country is a moment to cherish, we get it after a lot of hard work and the strong training programs before getting the license is one of the reasons we see such a disciplined traffic in developed countries.

STOP sign and Speed Limits

Signs, signs and signs … signs are key for smooth movement of traffic and some signs like the STOP sign have immense value. Accordingly to me it is one of the most important signs when on road. Initially I didn’t recognized the value of this sign and it rather looked insignificant, it was only when I started driving on US roads I realized that how this sign helps to regulate traffic. You can find this sign in every street. When an incoming traffic sees this sign it comes to a complete halt, looks around and then move again when safe. This sign is therefore very useful when we are coming from a street to the main roads or at crossings with no signals. What it does is it forces the traffic to stop and then look around and then move when it is safe. It therefore reduces the chances for an accident due to blind spots on the roads, most of which happens in our streets because the incoming vehicle could not see a vehicle coming from another side as none of them stopped to observe the traffic. The placement of this sign is also extremely significant, I don’t see this sign usually on the main streets rather I see them on lanes which are coming and merging to the main street. It therefore allows the traffic on the main street to continue with their speed and at the same time forces the merging traffic from narrow lanes to look around and merge to the main street traffic or take a turn only when it is safe.

Another important thing is the very clear speed limit signs placed right at regular intervals on streets and highways. So when the driver is moving within populated areas the speed limit comes down from 45-70 miles on highways to 25-35 miles.

Lane driving

Center Lanes

Also on roads with traffic in both direction and without a divider there is usually a center lane where the traffic which needs to take a turn (left in case of US) can wait for clear road on the other side of the road. This is exclusive for such purpose and it saves so much on traffic jams as it keeps traffic running on both sides of the road. Such a small thing but such a big impact. Even on the remotest of places we will find proper markings done for driving on both sides with a distinct divider lines.

   

Highways – Exit Ramps

Till now we discussed some ideas which were relevant to streets , coming to highways even they need lots of design considerations to avoid congestion during peak hours, or to be able to provide free flow of traffic at the maximum permitted speed. If we look at the picture below we can see how an exit ramp is designed in US and other parts of the world. Instead of signals managing the traffic, the place where vehicles need to take exit an exit ramp is provided. Much before the ramp sign boards indicate that an exit is coming and any vehicle looking to take that exit move to that lane. It is also to be noted in picture below how when an exit approach an extra lane is provided exclusive for the exit ramp. There are then signs that tell the traffic at what speed should they take turn on the ramp. Similar ramps or merge lanes approach is used to merge vehicles coming on the highway using. Again this is not an extremely costly solution , India for last few years is building huge network of roads , what we need is just application of mind thinking for every inch of road that is built thinking of all possible scenarios.

Fencing the highways

All of us must have sometime in our lives faced the scenario when a cattle jumped in front of our vehicle while we were at high speed on the highway. To avoid such a scenario it is extremely important to fence the highways. With a high density of population staying next to the highways govt can even plan to make sound walls which can both act as protection against some intrusive element on the road and provide a peaceful life for the people staying around the highways.

Mannerisms on road – awareness campaigns

Last but not the least are the mannerisms we follow on road. After all the techniques and methods the truth is that every part of the world is facing traffic jams during peak traffic hours. And here the role of good mannerisms make such a significant impact that it is difficult to explain till the time we have not experienced it ourselves. Every day In US I face huge traffic jams during peak hours, much worse than I saw in Hyderabad but due to good traffic mannerisms the traffic jams never results in deadlocks. People give you space to change lanes when you need to do so, people do not honk at each other, people move to the exit lanes much in advance so that they do not obstruct the traffic going beyond that exit point, if an accident happens the individuals involved in accident immediately move their vehicles on the shoulder lanes and allow others to move, If someone gives you space to move between the lanes you wave off as a mark of thanks, such small gestures but they leave you with a much better driving experience and far less stressed than what we face on Indian roads. Govt can look to run awareness campaigns to achieve the same. With a dynamic PM like Mr. Modi such a task is more doable than any other time in recent history. Social media can be used effectively to spread such awareness.

I have often heard expatriates/foreigners describing the cultural shock when they visit India, frankly speaking the filth in our cities and the madness on our roads are what people call as cultural shock. With Swach bharat and safe roads we can just not make traffic move smoothly we can also make India a better place to live in. Not all ideas that we see elsewhere in other countries may work for us but then these are some of the points I think are worth trying on Indian roads.

Redeeming Ganges: Is it about us or about the river?

Prime Minister Modi has taken up an ambitious target of redeeming Mother Ganga. His intentions are noble but talks to redeem Ganga are not new, around 20 thousand crores has been spent since 1986 under the Ganga action plan but the fate of the river never changed. From a layman’s point of view it looks like reducing the sewerage going to the river and removing the silt from the river basin will solve the problem as it will let the river flow naturally and restore its pristine glory. It is only after a while when we go deep in the problem and realize that ganga lacks one important thing for this plan to work out and that missing element is….WATERR….And once we understand that our approach to the problem begins to change.

Meanwhile A little before 1 month India was facing drought like conditions, and from last few weeks when rain gods started coming down in plenty our cities could not handle those showers and came to grinding halts. This is not new we have been seen this years after year. Droughts if there is no rain and flood like situation the moment it starts to rain. Who can forget the 1000 lives lost in the financial capital Mumbai few years back when Mithi River flooded due to incessant rains? PM Modi has also tapped into the aspirations of young India to build 50 new smart cities. The question is are all the problems or challenges stated below are interlinked or are they separate issues.

·         Reviving our rivers

·         Building new smart cities

·         Making ourselves prepared for uncertainties of monsoon

I feel all the above stated objectives are in a way interrelated to each other. When I tried to explore why did the revival work of Ganga fail I went into a journey where the garbage disposal problems of Bangalore, the floods in Mumbai or flooding of any city after a few hours of rain, the receding underground water levels across India, the floods and landslides in Uttrakhand/Kashmir and the dying ganga or say any other dying river they all seemed to be interlinked.

Reasons for failure – Dams, sewage

The most important reason for failure of Ganga action plan or say any other river cleaning plan must have been the same

·         The core of problem lies in unscientific extraction of water from river for irrigation and other purposes.

·         By design, dams alter the natural flow regime, and with it virtually every aspect of a river ecosystem, including water quality, sediment transport and deposition, fish migrations and reproduction, and riparian and floodplain habitat and the organisms that rely on this habitat get impacted.

·         The other big reason of river decline is the disposal of untreated sewage and industrial waste into the river in much greater quantity then the river can actually take with it. Here too the problem of diverting all the water from rivers results in drastically reduced capacity of river to naturally carry these pollutants.

·         As per some data on Ganga and its tributaries there are at least 34 barrages/structures functional in India and Nepal.  In India, barrages control all of the tributaries to the Ganges and divert roughly 60% of river flow to large-scale irrigation. There are around 558 dams on the Himalayan Rivers, including those complete, under-construction and still others that are proposed. The river Bhagirathi and its tributaries has 85 projects dotting its flow. Of the other major rivers, Bhilangna has 19 dams, Alaknanda and its tributaries have an astounding 91, Dhauliganga and its tributaries 19, Pindar and its tributaries 23, Gauri and its tributaries have 27 dams.

·         The Ganga and the Yamuna, along with their tributaries, have 55 ongoing projects.

·         Apart from that the govt sometime back came with the idea of setting up barrages at every 50/100 kms on the Ganga. Just imagine how would a river continue to flow if its water is diverted at every 100 kms .How do we expect to revive the glory of a river without leaving the minimum amount of water in it that which is essential for maintaining the amount of flow to carry out the sediments and then worsening the problems by releasing more sewage in it than it can carry with that current.

However once we identify the problems the question is how can we minimize the requirements of those necessities or is there an option to eliminate it altogether?

Looking Beyond Dams

Pundit Nehru called Dams as the temples of modern India. But as India catches pace in the new millennia a very little is now left of the Nehruvian legacy. Dams will probably be another legacy which needs to be looked into thoroughly. In order to address the question of restoration of river we will have to evaluate the requirements of Dams and how much waste can be disposed of in the river. If we come to the conclusion that dams are essentially at the core of the problem then we need to find out is there an option to remove the dams. The truth is that a large part of the country is getting its irrigation requirements from Dams and therefore removing them altogether is not an option. However across the world this realization that there is a requirement to look beyond Dams and identify ways in which we can reduce our dependence on dams is gaining traction. In a report in “Beyond Dams: Options and Alternatives” done in US it lists out the options on how can we look to alternatives to achieve the same benefits which Dams provide.

Broadly Dams are used for the following purposes

·         Flood controls

·         Irrigation

·         Energy/Power generation

Flood controls

While many of these alternatives are not quick fixes, they are real solutions that can be implemented with long-term planning.  The following are some alternative approaches to dams for flood management:

·         Reducing runoff by Low Impact development

·         Riparian & in-river flood management

·         Separating the people & the threat

Reducing Runoff by Low Impact Developments (LID): The principle behind runoff reduction measures is to increase the proportion of precipitation that infiltrates the soil and decrease the amount that runs off directly into rivers.  On undeveloped land, typically less than 20 percent of the volume of rainfall becomes direct surface runoff that drains into rivers. With development of buildings and paved impermeable surfaces, and the use of conventional piped drainage systems, direct runoff can increase to over 80 percent of the volume of rainfall.  By reducing the amount of runoff, the stream flow levels during storm events will be reduced, thereby reducing flood risk and the need for structures such as dams.  

It is these new techniques of Low Impact development that will redefine the way future cities will be planned. It is here I can relate the flooding of Indian cities after an hour of shower. It is because there is no place for water to go anywhere. If the Smart cities project take up these approaches of Low Impact developments they would release much less water into the river around which they are located. It will also help keep the ground water levels at much higher levels.

Restoring meander: Many flood management measures constructed in the past reduced the natural live storage capacity of river channels.  When engineers cut off meanders to straighten rivers and increase flow velocities, the storage provided by the longer, meandering river channel is lost.  Levees constructed to keep rivers within their channels prevent floodplains from storing and slowly releasing flood flows.  As a result, in some cases peak flood flows have increased and caused greater flood risk downstream of highly controlled river reaches.  This transferring of the flood creates a feedback loop of escalating flood risk and flood management actions that propagates downstream. By restoring the natural flood-carrying capacity of rivers and/or their riparian buffer regions, the need for a new or existing dam is reduced.

Separating the people & the threat: An important component of floodplain management is controlling the development of floodplains to place people and flood intolerant land uses in areas with relatively lower flood risk (i.e., land at higher elevation or greater distance from the river).  Land with greater flood risk is used for more flood tolerant activities, such as agriculture.  This type of zoning or resettlement has the biggest impact on the need for an existing or new dam aimed at flood management.  

If property and people cannot be located out of flood prone areas, flood proofing or some of the “natural” flood management measures discussed above can prevent floodwaters from reaching areas at risk.  While it is not likely that flood proofing alone will lead to the removal of a dam designed for flood management or delay a proposed flood management dam, it can be a useful tool when used in conjunction with the alternatives discussed above.  We have seen in Uttrakhand floods last year how unplanned development around river side leaving little or no buffer land resulted in around 10000 lives lost and property worth of billions being just washed away. If we do a cost-benefit analysis of those lives and billions worth of property we will realize that some of the Dams are not giving away so much of benefit.

Energy generation: Across the globe the energy generated by Hydel power is slowing being questioned to be counted as renewal source of energy. Instead the cheapening of solar energy is opening up new ways to harness renewable energy in a more ecologically sustainable way.

Irrigation: In India Dams are a major source of diverting water for irrigation purposes. It is here where the choice lies between the Devil and the deep sea. While the alternatives discussed above do reduce the dependence on Dams, a majority of them would still be required to feed the requirements of a growing economy and increasing population. However new techniques in agriculture using drip irrigation , creating structures to store the monsoon rains and reducing the rain water run-offs in both urban and rural areas have the potential to make a significant impact reducing the requirements of new dams.

The Verdict – Holistic view is the need of time

Where does all this leave us? Are these ideas new? Are the suggestions that are coming up are new? Probably not, they have been discussed and recommended again and again by different committees? So what has changed this time, Modi fought a bitter battle in Gujrat for the sardar sarovar dam, it is therefore quite obvious the direction new govt is likely to take. But the question is has anything changed during last few decades that desires a change in our approach .The answer is Yes , a lot has changed in India. Unlike in past the cost of floods, disasters and lost lives are exponentially going up. Soon we are reaching the level where a big disaster will nullify decades of development gone around in the region. In the age of social media one such disaster can revive the memories of the anti-corruption movement and the govt in New Delhi could be on stake. It is in this light that the new govt has to take up a new approach to solve the problems rather than working to remove the silt in the river bed. In the end if we summarize river restoration has to be a combination of these steps.

·         Identify the cities around the banks of all major rivers to be developed as Smart cities, focus on Low impact developments in those cities which in turn may reduce the dependence on any new Dams and will act as model cities for other existing cities

·         While the requirements of dams cannot be looked away totally there should be a proper cost – benefit analysis of the long term environmental impacts versus the benefits it brings to the community.

·         Restore the river by reducing the number of dams required, maintaining the minimum level of water in the rivers around the year.

·         Restore meanders, levees which provide natural protection against floods and helps to increase the storage capacity of the river naturally.

·         Work on latest techniques like Infiltration Galleries & Wells, Screened Intake Pipes, Seasonal Dams, and Consolidated Diversions to achieve the same benefits as of Dams. These techniques provide the same benefit as Dams while taking away the negatives out of building large dams.

·         Use latest dredging machines to remove the silt from the rivers. It has to be done in multiple phases. Each phase of dredging leaves behind some amount of contaminated sediment. Only after multiple times it gets to the point where it gets restored with the fresh sediment brought down by the river. Proper arrangements have to be done so that the contaminated sediments do not flow back to the river.

·         Promote commercial navigation and develop river fronts promoting economic activities around the river

·         Develop sufficient sewerage treatment capacity so that the amount of pollutants going into the river get reduced.

In the end all that is suggested sounds extremely challenging. So was it when it was proposed in other parts of the world. However there were about 3000 dams removed in US using these techniques and many rivers have been restored since then using a combination of these techniques. There was a lot of resistance and indifference initially for this approach until they realized that it was not about us it was about the river but ultimately what is good for river today will be good for us in the long term.

Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan & Myanmar- The road to North East?

Under PM Modi India has started a slew of initiatives meant to bolster India’s ties with its neighbors.  However the dialog with Bangladesh has opened up a Pandora ’s Box. BJP has raised the issue of illegal immigrants time and again and also have raised the issue as how the illegal immigrant population from Bangladesh is being used to alter the demographics of north eastern states and have been used dangerously by other political parties to create a favorable vote bank out of these immigrants. It is this issue of illegal immigrant which has not gone down well with many a well-wishers of BJP as this new approach of reconciliation and talks have not spelt out what will be the status of these illegal immigrants. It is therefore important to discuss and debate what all options New Delhi has when dealing with Dhaka and what all benefits does it get out of resolving all by standing issues with Bangladesh.

Good relations with neighbors have a dominos effect where in relation with one country can be used to show the benefit of being in good terms with India to other neighbors. It is in this context that the relationship with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar and Srilanka becomes extremely significant where peace with them can sometime be used to convince other hostile neighbors like Pakistan to have a more practical relation with India. However relationship with Pakistan is not the only benefit that India gain out of this good relationship with other countries.

North East as India’s Electronic Manufacturing hub?

PM Modi in his election rallies talked about 9 percent growth rates however even after removing the current policy deadlock and bringing in more reforms clocking 9 percent of growth could be a tough task at hand. Modi will have to search new avenues of growth, he will have to lookout for new regions which can contribute to overall higher growth rates. It is here where India’s North East becomes extremely critical. Just like Nepal is a landlocked country, India’s northeast are landlocked states. The north east of India is connected with the rest of the country by the vulnerable siliguri corridor also called as Chicken’s Neck - a very narrow strip of land linking mainland India to its north-eastern states. The Siliguri Corridor is at one point less than 14 miles and has therefore limitation using it to connect to the rest of North east. One of the far most and the biggest benefits that India can achieve by having a good relationship with Bangladesh , Nepal ,Bhutan and Myanmar is India will have the opportunity to unleash the potential of India’s north eastern states.

Modi did gave an insight into this when he talked about his vision to develop Kolkata as an important port city and claiming the status of regional growth engine. However he understands that developing Kolkata will not be enough as well as possible without a good having a good relationship with Bangladesh. India will have to look at developing at least couple of megacities in North east. With plenty of fresh water and good availability of cheap hydro power can North East be developed as the electronic manufacture hub for India as well as for India’s neighbors? Can Bangladesh here provide the critical land route to connect north east to rest of India as well as provide alternate sea routes to export the goods to other parts of the world?

Pakistan-Terrorism & China

While India’s borders on the western front are marred with terrorism and unstable regimes, the borders on eastern front are far more stable and much more favorable to Indian interests. It is this opportunity India needs to tap. The significance of having Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar not being used for anti-Indian activities is well known. However Bangladesh holds lot more promises .It is trying to avoid going the fundamentalist route Pakistan has gone. It is showing the will to fight the fundamentalist elements and therefore a secular moderate Bangladesh will always be beneficial for Indian interests.

The relationship with these countries are also significant from the Chinese point of view. As soon as Modi govt came to power they did a significant policy reversal in terms of China-North East issue. As per the new policy India will now be looking to encourage population settlements in border areas of the region. Again supporting such activities require a thriving economy in the region. A thriving northeast will bring many positives to Indian economy, India’s defense as well as reducing the isolation of north eastern people towards mainland India.

Illegal Immigrant problem

While Bangladesh has the capacity to unlock the north east out of its current isolation it is also true that some of the worst ethnic riots going on in Assam are a result of this immigrant population. A change in demographics not just undermines national security in the long run it can threaten India’s unity and integrity.

However India’s attempt to send back illegal immigrants have had little success in the past. Illegal Migrant Determination Tribunal (IMDT) which was designed especially for Assam State, became the biggest hurdle and was the main impediment or barrier in the identification and deportation of illegal migrants before being stuck down by Supreme Court.

Even deportation under the Foreigners Act also remained problematic. In 2003, the then Home Minister L. K. Advani ordered all states to deport illegal immigrants. A few weeks’ later 265 people were sent to the border, but authorities in Bangladesh declined to accept them. In fact India’s Border Security Forces (BSF), and its counterpart the Bangladesh Border Guards (then called the Bangladesh Rifles), came to the point of violence over the issue. There is no database of the actual Bangladeshis who have sneaked in Indian Territory. Any high handling of the issue in absence of such a list may only worsen the situation.

Reluctant Bangladesh

There is another aspect of this discussion. In the past Bangladesh has been extremely reluctant to give any transit to India via its territory. Well this is not new. With all neighbors India find extremely hostile responses most of the time. Sometimes it is due to timid responses to any issue, sometimes due to unclear policy begetting such responses. And the root cause of such weak responses are again back to economical reason.

Solution - An incremental approach with multiple options?

The biggest hurdle holding India-Bangladesh relationship is the illegal immigrant problem. And the real reason for this immigration are economic factors. The question therefore is that can India afford to think itself in isolation anymore? Being one of the top economies of the world India cannot ask to be integrated with the world economy and isolated from its neighbors at the same time. Then what are the solutions to India? Could an incremental approach with multiple options towards this problem may have a better chance of working out. While these countries can unlock north east potential, holding the growth of north east on only these factors can be detrimental

The approach therefore should be to work simultaneously to develop multiple options. Increased focus on north east development via development of new industrial corridors should be the focus of new govt whether India has a transit via Bangladesh or not. It was important to notice the 5000 crore allotment in rail budget given for development of railways in North-East. Is the Modi govt thinking on same lines where it is opening up talks with Bangladesh but at the same time not limiting itself to it?

Identify Illegal Immigrants and convey the enormity of the issue

As part of incremental approach the first step should be on getting identified all the illegal immigrants. This is easier said than done. There have been conflicting reports on the number of people coming from Bangladesh and till the time we India does not complete the exercise of identifying these people it will be impossible to move to any solution. The Assam accord which lays out the rules to identify foreign citizens should be used to arrive at such a list at the earliest. Only when India has a comprehensive list ready handling over of such a list to Bangladesh can be done. While immediate deportation of so many may not be possible immediately once New Delhi brings the enormity of the issue on the tables of discussion it can always help India in bargain at other places. The enormity of the situation could also be used to explain Bangladesh the urgency to push for a land and river transit through the region which may help bring prosperity on both sides of the border containing any further migration. Shying away from such discussions have not helped India in the past and any future discussions should always be done in the core interest of India.

Simplified Visa Regime

The second step to the incremental approach may lie in having a simplified visa regime and allow limited number of Bangladeshi nationals to earn their livelihood in India. Should the existing illegal immigrants who have been identified be provided temporary work permits identifying their foreign origin till the time proper arrangements are not made to send them back?

Making this movement legal will have the benefit that it will not alter the demographics of the north eastern states of the country which is the root cause of unrest in Assam and other parts of north east. Can this approach therefore fulfill the BJP’s pledge of safeguarding the interest of communities living in north east as well as give govt the capability to regulate this movement. However with labor still cheap and surplus in India allowing even limited number of people on the other side of border to earn livelihood may not be an easy idea to sell.

However sending back people when the govt across border is not cooperating is easy said than done. Bangladesh has in the past refused to take back immigrants accusing India of pushing back its own people inside Bangladesh. It was this reason which forced the Vajpayee govt to think of granting temporary work permit to all illegal immigrants till both the countries arrive at a solution. Will Modi govt take a leaf from Vajpayee’s govt? It is important to understand that only when there are enough opportunities in Bangladesh such a movement can be curtailed.

Increased Investment in Bangladesh

The third step of this incremental approach addresses the problem of opportunities in Bangladesh. The solution lies in India increasing its investment in Bangladesh manifolds. As India plan to spend trillions on its own infrastructure it can also look towards increasing its investment in infrastructure projects in Bangladesh something which may increase opportunities within Bangladesh as well as that investment can be looked as a part of the overall investment in north east development. Any moving back of illegal immigrants back to Bangladesh may have to deal with their rehabilitation. Could the investment in infrastructure be used to rehabilitate those moved back, could the labor used on those projects be the immigrants who are moved back?

The above approaches may help in reducing bad blood between both governments and the same time convey Bangladesh the enormity of the situation India faces. Well does that all sound extremely radical, it may indeed be like but only a favorable solution to all parties will have a chance to succeed. 

Build capacities in Urban Planning – Interesting times ahead?

As the car hit the roads of Chicago and its beautiful skyline mesmerized me, the old question which has occupied my mind every time I have travelled a city in Europe, US or any other developed country, came back to haunt me. I started wondering when in India, will we build such beautiful cities?. Not just Chicago each and every big or small city in US or elsewhere gives you a sense of discipline and planning.

Back home when I discussed that with few friends, some blamed it on corruption and others said we just can’t afford that kind of cities at this point of time. In fact for years I have also thought that such cities were a luxury that India cannot afford and even if we could have done it we are having a system far too corrupt to let that happen. However this time was different , even these thoughts didn’t gave me any comfort and I decided to dig deep into how these cities were originally planned and built in US , Europe or any developed country in Asia.

History of Urban Planning

“The lower town’s streets formed a well-planned and carefully maintained grid; their widths, starting from the narrowest, were 1.8m, 3.6m, 5.4m and 7.2m, in a perfect geometric progression of 1:2:3:4. … The only structures permitted on the streets were small brick platforms jutting out near house entrances, where people evidently sat together in the evening to chat and exchange the day’s news;”

“Covered drains took the waste water out of the houses “to a collective sewer; this in turn was connected to a network of drains made of carefully aligned baked bricks, with cesspits or soak jars provided at regular intervals to collect sullage.”

These excerpts are on the urban planning as being done in Harappa. Yes almost 5000-7000 years back almost million square kilometers of land that formed the Indus Saraswati Civilization saw the development of the most advanced urban planning in the ancient world, a social order that was more egalitarian than has ever existed anywhere since. A shame that after 5000 years instead of improving on what we improvised in those ages we have reduced our cities to piles of garbage and utter chaos.

Around the World – The Chicago Plan Not too far back, most of the cities across US suffered the same issues which we are facing now in India. Constant expansion and growth without planning had left cities in total chaos. Popularly known as the “Burnham Plan”,  in a rather ambitious move, a group of prominent businessmen sat around and hired an architect “Daniel H. Burnham” to turnaround Chicago. Burnham in turn recommended an integrated series of projects including new and widened streets, parks, new railroad and harbor facilities, and civic buildings. His recommendation had 6 major points mainly

Improvement of the lakefront - The plan recommended expanding the parks along the Lake Michigan shoreline with landfill. Of the city’s 47 km of lakefront, all but six kms are today public parkland. Today Chicago Lakefront Trail is a foreshoreway for walking and cycling, running 29 km along the coast of Lake Michigan

New outer parks - The plan included proposals and also called for the expansion of the city’s park and boulevard system. Go anywhere across the world and you have plenty of parks where a common man can go with his family for distressing stroll.

Systematic arrangement of streets - New wider arterials were prescribed to relieve traffic congestion and beautify the fast-growing city, including a network of new diagonal streets. Any planned city in the world will likely to go for a grid pattern or radial pattern roads running throughout the city, such a design makes the navigation easy, makes addresses far more intuitive, it may also help to plan the routes of public transport based on which routes are more busier than others, help to plan the location of important government buildings secretariats, courts, cultural centers, libraries and transport hubs to be built in future. Each avenue has its arterial road that connects the specific avenue to the main street. Moreover, the interior roads are planned in a way that each of them meets at a common point usually a Central Park.

Just open google map and pick any Indian city apart from a few like Delhi and Chandigarh which have some sense of planning applied you will be just stunned at the maps of some of our most prestigious cities. Even a city like Bangalore looks like to have been built on a pile of heap without any sense of direction or planning, the lesser said the better it is. That is how we end up with the most bizarre house addresses in the world.

Civic and cultural centers - Burnham also gave proposals on reserving space for civic and cultural centers. It’s a beauty when we go around any downtown in US we find libraries, museums and some important govt building, at the center of the city. This is a pattern across most of the planned cities around the world. Compare this to our cities where we never pay enough thoughts on building world class public library and museum in each and every city of the country.

Improvement of railway terminals & a regional highway system – The plan also looked at for competing railroads and highways to pool usage of tracks for greater efficiency in freight handling.

Though some of things did changed with changing times more or less a plan laid out around 100 years back helped shape today’s Chicago. There were architectural concepts applied even on the placement of one building in context to another. Architecture is not just about how we build a single building, it is also about thinking holistically about the usage of space, air and sunlight, movement of people around the buildings. And it is all these concepts applied together that even having a similar population in any of the metros across the world the movement of goods and people does not make us give a feeling of chaos , in fact the movements are planned in such a way that it looks scenic.

Build capacities in Urban Planning

So where does all that leave us? It is true that we don’t have funds even today to build grand Museums and libraries in every city but definitely do the systematic layouts of roads and buildings cost anything extra? We do have roads in India, only if we had applied ourselves even a little bit finding out that a grid/radial layout of the roads across the city will help in many a future problem is not such a rocket science and further expansion in future on that well thought plan would have been much easier.

The Nehruvian era had huge focus on building IIT’s and IIM’s which have proven their worth beyond doubt but there was no focus on building proper cities and towns in India. A country with 1.2 billion people does not even have a dozen of world class urban planning institutes where problems faced by our cities can be identified and planners can work to find a solution for them. The problem is not just the corruption the problem is that after independence we have treated urban planning as a luxury that we cannot afford. While urban planning has many other dimensions and we do work on solving a lot of problems there is no holistic view on which our cities are planned and I therefore think that we need to start with building capacities in urban planning on an urgent level so that our cities can be planned properly, when for the first time when I discussed the concept of urban planning with some of the best minds in my group none had a clue what exactly does that mean and this lack of awareness is at the core of the problem.

However there is also a pleasant surprise, PM Modi who has worked in Gujarat does have a vision on the reasons we are lagging behind in this. He has talked about building capacities in urban planning and his vision of 100 world class cities does promise a lot of hope. What more is needed is that the basic concepts of urban planning need to be started being applied in all future villages, towns and urban centers and not just 100 new cities being built. We are moving in interesting time and let’s hope that we can stop treating urban planning as a luxury and start building well laid neat and clean cities. Indians deserve something better.

The following two tabs change content below.

Bullet Trains/High-speed Rail: An Investment in future?

As Narendra Modi spoke of bullet trains, he ignited the imagination of a billion plus country and brought the subject of high speed trains to the centre of discussions. High speed railways (HSR) is a type of rail transport that operates significantly faster (200-300kmh) than the traditional rail traffic. The first such system began its operations in Japan in 1964 and was widely known as the bullet train. In India, the subject was first brought into discussion in late 80′s. However budget constraints and feasibility had put the idea in cold storage. High speed trains are indeed a costly affair with the cost to lay each km coming to more than 100 crores. At such a cost even to start building a nominal network of 400-500 KMs between some of the proposed corridors will cost a bomb. And it is not just India where it has been perceived to be costly; across the globe even in a resourceful country like the US there are debates about its sustainability.

However in recent years there has been a lot of research that has gone into the feasibility and sustainability aspect of HSRs. In one such report “high speed rail and sustainability” by UIC(the International Union of Railways)  done to find out the feasibility and sustainability of these rails in California, USA, many interesting findings in favour of high speed rails have emerged. Some of them are as relevant to India as it is for the United States.

Land use

One of the biggest cost factors in building such a project is cost of the land, however rail networks have come out to be the most cost effective in terms of land use using 3 times less land than traditional highways for carrying same amount of traffic as the number of lanes required are far less in a HSR. An average 2 track rail-line uses only 3.2 hectares of land per km with a typical width of 25 meters compared to an average six lane road using 9 Hectares per km of land with a width of 75 meters. Also in order to maximize the HSR land usage and make it even more feasible in terms of cost such a line could be built in parallel to a highway.

Also if we look around the world most of the airports are slowly reaching a saturation stage where expanding them further for interstate travel or intercity travel between nearby cities may become an extremely costly affair. HSRs come handy in such a scenario where they can handle the interstate and intercity travel freeing the airport for more important international travel and very long distance travel. Such HSR networks can be integrated with the city metro/other transport systems owing to the fact that they can be taken deep inside a city compared to airports which are usually at the outskirts of a city. A HSR can therefore be a very cost effective solution over the long term and should be looked at in that light.

Environment

Global warming due to greenhouse gases is a reality of the current day. Of the total carbon dioxide emissions across the world, transport systems form a major chunk of 23 percent. Out of this motor travel and air travel forms 80 percent of the total CO2 emissions. Railways just form 2 percent of these emissions (isn’t that fantastic?).The carbon footprint per passenger is lowest in rail traffic. It is just 17 grams of carbon dioxide per KM (European HSR) compared to 153gm/km for air travel or 115gm/km for road travel. Another very important factor is that HSRs could be made to run totally on renewable sources of energy like solar or wind power. Around 46 percent of Spain and 22 percent of France HSRs run with renewable sources. Sweden has taken steps to put their entire rail network on renewable sources in coming years. Why can’t we do the same in India reducing our dependence on imported fossil fuels?

A HSR network across major cities in India can reduce the congestion on roads leading to reduced travel time, this alone can save billions of dollars in carbon footprint and such savings should be taken into consideration when we estimate the cost of building any form of transport system. While The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation is not an HSR it is the nearest example of how a good choice of transport transforms the life of a city. It has been certified by the United Nations as the first metro rail and rail-based system in the world to get “carbon credits for reducing greenhouse gas emissions” and helping in reducing pollution levels in the city by 630,000 tonnes every year.

According to a report by the Central Road Research Institute (CRRI), as many as 1.2 lakh vehicles are off the road every day because of the Metro. Roughly Rs 523 crore is saved annually in fuel costs whereas the cost in terms of time of passengers saved per year works out to a whopping Rs 2,978 crore, according to the study. Just imagine all these benefits replicated across top 20 cities in India and in future extended to all cities with a population of a 1-2 million, the benefits will be huge crossing more than 60000 crores per year (as per any conservative estimate) increasing the productivity of the country and adding at least half to 1 percent to overall GDP figures. And these benefits are just the other benefits that we get out of these systems; the actual benefits will be huge.

High Tech industry

With the available pool of millions of engineers India can look to become a powerhouse in building such networks across the globe with the best quality at the most competitive price. Building such a high tech industry will have enormous benefits for a country like India laying the foundation for many high tech industries. And the jobs created are not just direct high tech jobs but as per the UIC report every 10 direct jobs created in building HSR results in 14 indirect jobs compared to just 5 numbers of indirect jobs when building highways.

Is it feasible?

Yes indeed it is feasible, and the answer lies in going for a phase wise development of such transport system across India. Such a system can help India build new cities and new industries across the path of such a track. Across the world it is a known fact that cities around such a high speed network have become engines of growth and prosperity. Also there is a growing realization across the urban planners in the world that rapid urbanization is actually a good thing which leaves a large track of land to retain its biodiversity as the majority of the population stays up in big cities. And such big cities make the investment in such a transport system extremely feasible.

If the 2014 elections throw up a new government with a strong developmental agenda this will be one of the most debated subjects. While we discuss, our neighbour China has shown the way by building a world class HSR network to the tune of more than 10000 Kms with a daily ridership of more than 1.33 million. And the decision has transformed the way people used to travel and do business in China. Hope we also start investing in building capacities which may serve us well for the coming decades and change the way we travel and do business in India. Hope the next occupant of 7 Race Course Road is listening.

The article was also published at Centreright 

United Subcontinent? A myth or an agenda for foreign policy …

This post was first published on CRI

“I don’t think we are just Muslim people , in this same part of land at we were Buddhists , in this same part we were Hindus and in same part we have been Muslims, I associate myself to this land ” says Fouzia Saeed a noted human right activist in a television debate in Pakistan. But why this sudden debate emphasizing on the identity of the people of Pakistan. Well Pakistan is probably going through its lowest moment in the recent history. Fundamentalism, terrorism, religious intolerance is killing Pakistan every passing day. When Bangladesh made a pitch for Aazadi and separated from Pakistan in 1971 the two nation theory was put to rest. People with same religion could not stay as one country just for the sake of religion. As an independent country Bangladesh is today doing better on many fronts than Pakistan and in fact better than India also on few fronts. Whether the two nation theory was flawed or not can be a point of debate and discussion but it has to be noticed that it has failed so miserably when put in practice in Pakistan. However the problems of Pakistan ran deeper than just their belief in two nation theory, it was not just their desire for a separate nation for people following a different religion somewhere the establishment in Pakistan had a deeper hatred for anything and everything which was unfamiliar. So the hatred that started from Hindus, extended to baluchs and then continued to their brothers in Bengal. The result of this belief is a total disconnect of present day Pakistan to their original roots which was Hindu and Indian for a major part of the civilization.

Somewhere Pakistan could not learn to appreciate the fact that they were indeed at the center of the one of the greatest civilization the world has ever seen. They saw that as a Hindu or probably an Indian civilization. While they admired the legends of Gajni or Sikandar seeing them as a fellow Muslim (though Sikandar was not a Muslim) they didn’t realize that these guys had done no welfare to the people living in those parts of the country where they are worshiped today. They in fact looted and plundered those parts of land and that generations must have suffered that pain during those times. It is nothing but a firm belief in this disconnect is the reason I could think of that slowly and steadily the history taught was re-written in Pakistan. What else could explain that the facts were distorted and misrepresented to the extent that today the young generation is so confused about its identity and its roots in Pakistan? The situation has been very well described by a scholar in Pakistan in one of the jokes that’s going around “a child asked his father as what existed before Mohd Bin Kasim came here ? Was it all oceans as he could not imagine anything beyond that and nothing is taught today about the rich past that Pakistan had at some time? So they learn about Akbar but forget about Ashoka, they learn about Sikandar but forget about Indus valley civilization. And it is this disconnect from its identity that has to be resolved if Pakistan has to any time return to the path of growth and progress. The question however is, Is it even possible in anyone’s wild dreams today that Pakistan will be able to resolve these contradictions and look to move ahead?

The End of Road?

While it is true that Pakistan today suffers from one of the worst times in recent era few voices have grown louder criticizing the path of religious fundamentalism and aversion to anything unfamiliar that Pakistan has taken. There is a growing realization in the media and intellectuals in Pakistan that their liberal neighbor India (which they call as Liberal dehshatgardJ) is contributing to the world more than they could do and that it is time that Pakistan own its past and learn to accept the reality as it existed and still be comfortable with their own identity of today. A very strong voice in this regard is of “Hasan Nissar” who has raised his voice against the hijack of the history by the mullahs who have not allowed Pakistan to walk on the path of progress. Many other voices are slowly joining his voice and are raising questions right from the decision to form Pakistan as a separate country, their obsession with Kashmir when they could not hold even Bangladesh and now the unrest in Baluchistan ,the attempt of hardliners to identify themselves with the Arabs when Arabs themselves does not treat Pakistanis equally, role of Pakistan in international terrorism and all that odd uncomfortable questions even on Iqbal and Jinnah many of whom we cannot even discuss in India because then you get branded as a communal force. The media and liberals in Pakistan are today questioning the mullahs and fundamentalists in a way that is unimaginable for anyone to imagine about Pakistan media.

What does all that mean for India?

For a long time poets and writers have imagined the two countries working together to fight the common problems that both the nations face. However my attempt to see them working together is not from rooted in some phantasy I am trying to look at this issue very pragmatically. India for a long time has failed to evolve a proper foreign policy for any of its neighbor and the terrorism from Pakistan has not in any way helped in this situation further. A question arises therefore what should India do at a time when Pakistan in not on the tables to talk and is bogged down by its internal conflicts.

Strengthen the moderate voices

The answer lies in the developments that are taking place in Pakistan. While there is definitely terrorism originating from Pakistan slowly there is also a realization that it is harming Pakistan more than anyone else. And it is this voice in Pakistan that India should work to strengthen so that any kind of peace process can be taken further in future. But then there is a chance that openly strengthening those voices will take away the credibility of those voices. It is here the actual challenge lies and while it is difficult it is not impossible. The West and US has always strengthened voices across the globe that suit there side of story and we may learn a few lessons from them. These voices should also be given a chance to be heard in India also, the general perception of people of both nations across borders need to be changed for the govt’s to make a decision. The moderates there have lessons for minorities here in India also.

People to people contact

Another important point on any foreign policy is that it should not be made without the people of that country becoming a stakeholder in the whole process. Well this point has been discussed a lot but no one really understands how to increase people to people contact without increasing the threat of a Pakistani spy/terrorist on Indian soil. And it is here we need a strong govt in India which can make our boundaries less porous and terrorism not an issue which can be debated from the prism of vote bank politics. A strong and a no non sense govt in India can help achieve an India which can stay isolated from the turmoil of Pakistan and can then achieve more people to people contact by offering opportunities in areas such as education, tourism and technology. It is here where Bangladesh & Sri Lanka can be used to set as an example. An equally good people to people contact program with other subcontinent nations will slowly tell the Pakistanis the benefits of a good relationship with India.

Terrorist attacks

But what happens if after all this we get a Mumbai like attack originating from Pakistani soil. The answer is to reply them back in their own language. Any attempt with Pakistan will soon or later come to this situation. And here we should be very clear strong limited military action around terrorist camps will be the need of the hour and going through it once or twice will set the conditions clearly in everyone’s mind. If Pakistan blames non-state actors for these situation then India should also stop blaming Pakistan and instead set the platform for carrying out action against the non-state actors blaming them fully for the act.

Lessons for India

The meltdown in Pakistan also has few lessons for every Indian. It tell us as what happens when we walk the path of fundamentalism and develop an intolerance to anything contrary to our views. While a proud feeling for one’s religion, culture and country is fine it should not get confused with hatred for others religion and culture. Defeating a contradictory view by argument is the best way to prove your side of the argument, any other way is an unhealthy path which should be avoided in all situations.

The second lesson is for minorities in India. Following the level of debates in Pakistan it made me wonder if Muslim scholars ever had any such kind of debates in India. It is so laudable that an independent media is asking so many uncomfortable questions in Pakistan to the hardliners which are unimaginable in India. Indian minorities have become a class preserved in time which no one is talking a step to move them to a path of progress. It is extremely sad that while at the time of independence we had Muslim leaders like Maulana Azad who were much ahead of their time but today we have a vacuum in Muslim leadership. And that vacuum has been taken up by bigots such as Owasis. While the moderates in Pakistan are asking to identify themselves as humans here all attempts are being made to push people to extremist positions.

It is therefore the duty of all parties and all educated Muslim class that they start the dialog within the community and the govt of the day must give all platforms to give momentum to such a dialog. While Uniform civil codes raises hackles it is extremely important that if not Uniform civil code then there should be at least an attempt within the Muslim personal laws to make reforms which are in sync with the current times. When a segment of population does not reforms itself, it creates an environment sooner or later where any new reforms will be protested in other parts and religions of the country also. We are seeing at an attempt to do this when so called mainstream political parties play with terminologies on the issue of KHAP panchayats. There is no reason to stay in dark ages just because few thousand men in Taliban decided to keep themselves forever in darkness.

United subcontinent

A strong India dealing with a long term vision is the need of the hour. At this moment things are not ripe to take the talks forward but then this is the perfect moment to build a platform on which a relationship of future can be laid. A united subcontinent is not really that big a myth, a free movement of goods and labour in this part of the world can create a market bigger than China or the US. And the solution to Kashmir lies not in making the boundary irrelevant across the Kashmir valley, Kashmir will more or less remain the same, the solution lies in making irrelevant boundary across the subcontinent. A lot more than billion prayers and a lot more than a trillion dollar market is waiting. Hope someone is listening.