Deconstructing #ModiInPakistan : What has changed ?

Deconstructing #ModiInPakistan : What has changed ?

Prime minister has made a diplomatic coup by visiting Pakistan on his return from Afghanistan. This has send both his supporters and detractors in a tizzy. It is no hidden truth that BJP has traditionally supported an aggressive stance against a terror fomenting Pakistan and Mr. Modi was himself at the forefront of that earlier, therefore what prompted this change? The congress has sent confused signals, first was the signal that Mr. Modi went there to secure the benefits for an industrialist. Congress confusion is understandable since the party has been seeking direction from Rahul Gandhi who in turn was inspired with Mr. Kejriwal and wanted to learn a few tricks from him. In their endeavor to do a Kejriwal congress has become Kejriwal. Congress was also quick to point out that their govt’s in the past have been following same policy and BJP acted extremely hawkish at that time not allowing the process to go through. Now congress is bound to draw comparisons in order to gain legitimacy for their illegitimate tactics in derailing parliament and in turn derailing India’s growth story. The reaction from other political parties and media houses was on similar lines. There has been a cottage industry in media houses who has always welcomed any dialog with Pakistan irrespective of the situations on ground. The reaction of that cottage industry comes less from a nuanced strategic understanding of the global geo politics or national interest but more because they see peaceful relations with Pakistan as an extension of the communal secular debate in domestic Indian politics. The media debates after the visit therefore continued around these lines giving very little insight into the larger global geo politics shaping up.

What has changed?

The question however still remain unanswered as what changed on ground that prompted this visit and is Modi’s foreign policy on Pakistan an extension of Manmohan Singh’s era. For years Indian foreign policy could be described in black and white. The moment we wanted to have good relations with a country it was considered as an obligation that we would bend our backs to pull a red carpet for them and would not build any strategic levers against them to invite their ire. So relations with china were built on the cost of not building any infrastructure on the border , uncomfortable questions on border transgressions were ignored and any military alliances with other countries were avoided just not to antagonize china. The relations with Pakistan had to be paid in different currency , terrorist attacks had to be ignored, our strategic interest in Afghanistan remained confined to just building roads and schools winning goodwill but short of giving any strategic say in the aftermath of US army leaving back from Afghanistan. Relations with Middle East and Saudi remained outside the realm of our thought process assuming on our behalf that strategy of Middle East countries will forever remain driven from the religion rather than anything further. Pakistan gladly filled that strategic space left by India. For years India seemed incapable of making these crucial strategic choices and we therefore remained a nation reluctant to assume any significance in global geo politics much to the frustration of our allies and to the delight of our enemies. Much of this was the result of Sonia Gandhi led congress appointing a ceremonial head of a state who did not had the political capital to make those choices.

With Modi stepping in the first signs of change came right at his swearing in ceremony where he invited all nations of the SAARC nations, the thought was clear India wanted to assume the central role it had in the region. India’s engagement with China also have this new Modi imprint in it, while being pragmatic in having a good relationship with China for the purpose of securing funds for building up India’s infrastructure the Modi govt has not let his sight off the huge strategic challenge it faces vis a vis china in securing the Himalayas in north and securing Indian ocean in south. The Malabar exercises with US has now been expanded and japan has now become a permanent member of the same. The possibility of Australia joining this in near future could not be ruled out. While Chinese have made inroads to Sri Lanka India has returned the favor by laying red carpet to the Vietnamese PM during his visit to India. India has now openly acknowledged modernizing Vietnam’s armed forces and enhancing its maritime capacity. India has also extended a $100 million in credit for defense deals to Vietnam. The results are there to see Japan has given India its second most important civilian nuclear deal , while we were looking at the Chinese for funding our infrastructure it was Japan who clinched the bullet train project by offering a sweetener of a deal. No need to say that projection of power play also helps economically or the vice versa.

Inviting the US president to the republic day parade was another of such master strokes having significant strategic symbolism. And yet the relationship with US has not come at the cost of India’s firm stand in WTO negotiations or climate change deals. India has bargained hard on its position but at the same time taken leadership roles by forming a solar alliance on issues of global importance like climate change.

What has changed with Pakistan?

From the examples above could we now see a clear pattern in Modi’s Pakistan policy? In fact modi’s Pakistan policy seems to be extremely consistent with his overall foreign policy with other nations. In a very strong signal to Islamabad India has agreed to provide attack helicopters to Afghanistan in its fight against Taliban. As reported earlier in Indianexpress   Such a deal would need the tacit approval of the US, and because the equipment is of Russian origin, the transfer will have to be approved by Moscow. With so many countries coming together, notwithstanding the number and vintage of helicopters involved, the transfer assumes greater geo-strategic significance.

Even on the firing across the line of control BSF has been given a free hand in determining the nature of the response it wants to give. As reported in the dailymail from UK “It seems Pakistan’s military establishment did not anticipate a strong Indian response to the shelling at the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border. According to an internal report sent by the Indian mission in Islamabad to South Block, the Pakistani military establishment is now running for cover in the face of India’s retaliation... According to the Indian mission’s report, India’s retaliation has been so effective that Pakistani television channels have been directed by the Pak GHQ and ISI to completely black out any media coverage of the damage caused on the Pakistani side, and not to show any visuals of the casualties or damage on the ground. Even the Dawn newspaper was asked on Wednesday by Pakistan Army commanders to tone down its initial report about a few people being killed in retaliatory Indian fire...”

But what about the red lines that were drawn by cancelling the NSA’s talks over the Pakistani NSA meeting the hurriyat delegation. The Indian media has been quick to point out that it that be construed as a sign of confusion in modi’s policy against Pakistan. However that may well not be true. Modi has drawn a red line and Pakistan may willingly chose not to adhere to it, however in diplomacy such strategic handles are not meant to be used immediately. Only time may tell us how India may decide to use that red line to involve a party which Pakistan may not be very pleased to see.

Under Modi India has therefore started putting itself at the center of global geo-politics and the relationship with Pakistan should also therefore be seen in the larger global context where India is trying to project itself. While Modi’s Pakistan visit may not change the situation or the stand of countries in historic disputes it has signaled India’s intent which is ready to engage with everyone who is ready to build a conducive environment but is ready to take punitive actions and build tactical levers against them as the situation requires. India’s foreign policy is therefore no longer remaining Pakistan centric but Pakistan is becoming a part of a larger global aspiration that India seems to be taking up to build a world class industrialized economy. Economy seems to be becoming the principle factor of modern geo politics. Indian foreign policy under Modi has been changing in such a huge way and is assuming such a significant momentum that it would continue to take this path for the coming decades. If in last century India’s dogma was defined by non-alignment obscuring India in international politics the coming would have the Modi imprint in it propelling India to the center of global power politics.