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Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The coming of Age for Indian Defense Industry

This article first got published on Center Right India " The coming of Age forIndian Defense Industry"

2013 will mark a watershed year in the history of Indian defense industry. First the indigenously built nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines Arihant was launched in August for sea trial, later its reactor went critical, India own indigenous built aircraft carrier Vikrant named after the now decommissioned 1971 war hero aircraft carrier also got launched this year. Agni V propelled India into the big boys club.

The cherry on cake and probably which has the highest significance for Indian defense industry will now happen on 20th December when defense minister A.K Antony will hand over to the IAF boss, Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, the home grown fighter aircraft Tejas. Antony will hand over “Release to Service Document (RSD)”, which specifies the capabilities that the aircraft has and which it has already demonstrated during flight testing. It will also mark the award of Initial Operational-2 clearance to Tejas.



Tejas will replace the Mig 21 supersonic aircraft. While Tejas is not a fighter aircraft comparable to the Sukhoi or other top fighter aircraft in the world it has huge significance for India and Indian defense industry. It is India’s first attempt to build a multirole fighter aircraft after the Marut program in early sixties. The decision to build the aircraft was taken in 1987 though the final go ahead was given at a later point of time. It was an ambitious take for a country which did not had the capability at that point to build even a car engine. And therefore on the way to build Tejas India had to set up a range of industries and research institutes which can contribute to the program. The time program started even the private industry in India was not that strong to have helped the program and later when things did start to pick up India did the nuclear explosions which resulted in further delay to the program.

The Light combat aircraft as it was known earlier was rechristened as Tejas by none other than India’s former PM A.B Vajpayee. With all the delays the program faced kudos to successive governments in the center which did not let their support for this program die and now we have therefore an aircraft which boasts of some of the most advanced technologies across any fighter aircraft in the world. Some of the technologies worth mentioning in Tejas are compound delta wing design, fly by wire, open architecture for computer avionics, digital cockpit and use of carbon composite materials in building the structure of the aircraft.

Of the critical technologies the ADA(Aeronautical Development Agency)  at the beginning of the LCA program as needing to be mastered for India to be able to design and build a "completely indigenous" fighter, two have been entirely successful: the development and manufacture of advanced carbon-fiber composite (CFC) structures and skins and a modern "cockpit. The biggest failure of the program was however the failure to build the indigenous engine Kaveri for the aircraft. It is however now one of the lessons of the program that a program of such high technical difficulty should have been taken in a step by step fashion identifying which technologies we were capable to build at the start of the program.

Tejas has however given to India a base from where there will be no going back, work on Tejas Mark-2 has already started and a prototype of the same will be ready next year. Now that we have built the required industrial base for such a program coming up with upgraded versions of the aircraft will not take such a huge time as it did earlier and as the Air Force will start flying these machines the feedback on which areas to improve will start going back to the next phase of the program some of which must already be happening now. The biggest impact will however be on the commercial aspects of the program, with India moving away from Nehruvian era of reluctance to export arms. After the recent display of India’s built arms being shown in Seoul defense exports India can look at a huge market which it can attract. From huge defense equipment’s import bill India in coming decade can look to reduce dependence on foreign arms and can look to emerge as a country which can export world class arms.

However to achieve this govt will have to show a lot of change in its current attitude where the defense industry is a total public sector baby. Time has come when a greater participation of India’s own private industry to participate in the development and manufacturing of these technologies. Not just will it save huge amount of foreign reserves it has huge employment generation capability adding to the GDP numbers. Setting up of defense SEZ’s, bringing more focus on “Make” rather than “Buy” should be the mantra of the govt not just in words but in action. Probably the forces also have to come to terms with this providing the necessary support for such programs. I think Indian Navy is showing a huge shift in priorities to build indigenous and now Air Force and Army may also soon join the club. In this regard there is another program which needs mention and that’s the indigenous built MBT (main battle tank) the Arjun.

Arjun MBT

I think there were many things similar in Arjun and Tejas; both got delayed by huge amount of time. But now both of them have the potential to change India’s defense scene. While Tejas do not still compete with the best aircrafts in the world though systematically it can prove to be upgraded to a world class in the coming decade Arjun did proved its worth against none other than T-90’s of Russia.



In a battle of survival Arjun Mark 1 which had no other way left to gain support for its program were put against the T-90’s, both were given a set of tasks and Arjun did performed very well compared to T-90. (It was likes Tejas performing very well against the F-16’s) .The army has however still not shown its confidence in the tank due to its heavy weight putting forth operational obstacles in carrying out operations with Arjun. It was however strange that the Arjun were considered as too heavy and too wide. A comparison of the best tanks in the world like Abrams of US will show that they fall in the same weight category as Arjun with almost the same width. A little search on Abrams will tell you that they are carried across the world for fighting by Boeing C-17 Globe master the same aircraft which India acquired this year. The Abrams were used in various wars in Afghanistan where the terrain of the land must have been same as at least on some place in India. The army has however thought otherwise and since they are the one who know the best of that subject we do not get into the details of this argument. The DRDO has therefore gone down to design laboratories and soon sometime in next year we may hear the arrival of Arjun MBT Mark 2. The Arjun Mark II will have a total of 93 upgrades, including 13 major improvements. Arjun tank hull and turret has been modified to achieve the target weight of about 55 tons from 59-64 tons. According to recent reports, the newly modified 55-tonne Arjun mk2 tanks have pulled impressive performances in the final trials that commenced from early August 2013. Owing to the experience while designing and building the first version work on Arjun Mk-II was completed in 2 years. We hope that same stays true for Tejas with Mk II and then the AMCA – (advanced medium combat aircraft) can be rolled out in quick time with the lessons from past and a strong industrial base on with us. Another similarity between the Arjun and Tejas is the lack of indigenous engine, focus should now go get indigenous engine for both these fighters. An active participation by the private industry is the need of the hour for bringing out Indian defense industry to contribute to the defense and the economy of the country. Time is ripe for Indian defense industry to take its giant leap.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Bibliography

The Lost River: On the trail of Saraswati. By  Michel Danino

TilakLokamanya-The Arctic Home In TheVedas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkaim



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AAP aur Main ..my response to questions raised by my friend and AAP supporter


First of all I am extremely happy that most of my friends who were earlier disinterested in politics and somehow with the doings in the country itself have now jumped into such good conversations around the issue. It’s a welcome sign that things are changing and though we may be on different sides as of now we all aspire for a change and if u and me both aspire for it then change is eminent. It is also refreshing to debate for subjects which the young and old both has been aspiring rather than the fake debates of communal versus secular …now getting to the actual debate.

Chandan if u see my comment on another of AAP supporter’s page u will see I mentioned how delighted I am that the people of Delhi such a mandate in favor of AAP and how such an idealistic kind of politics will go a long way in cleaning the whole system. In fact the first sign of change has already started showing with none of the parties making a claim to form govt in Delhi, Rahul Gandhi accepting that somewhere something is not working and he needs to bring changes in congress on line of AAP,isn’t that a great thing ?However my acceptance of their doing good has been ignored in your comments and other AAP supporters as well.

While change in one party is good I was happy and I debated that how BJP was well poised to take on the challenge of AAP being more federal in structure instead of being run by a dynastic family. A party where decisions are taken by a group of people rather than a single person. A party where the PRESSURE FROM CADRE yes read it again very well pressure by cadre which holds no post anywhere in this country forced the president of the party to declare Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Unfortunately your definition of common man has become too centered on AAP and somehow you are not looking at anyone out of AAP as a common man.

COMPETITVE POLITICS

The other high point of my arguments was that of COMPETITVE POLITICS. While I appreciated the changes that AAP is forcing on the political scene I tried to extend the argument further than the events are harbinger of change in other parties also. And if that happen it will be great for Indian democracy. Will it or Not? I cannot predict whether AAP will come in power at the national scene but I can bet a thousand times that if competitive politics bring a change in the way each party works that will be beneficial to generations to come. Unfortunately you are looking extremely uncomfortable with the idea that there can be any other party which can also change and can pose a challenge. I strongly disagree with you on this front. Whether a party remains or is forgotten what is important that change must happen for the good. Today BJP is well poised for challenging AAP tomorrow congress may also be able to do that. With all my love for my party BJP I have an eye to look at the good of other parties (even in congress  ...yes even they have some strengths J ) and also to look at the folly of my own party and I wish my friends who have acquired a taste in politics to not get impatient with any criticism and agree that there are good reasons that these party have been voted for so long in power. Unfortunately as of now you are not looking.

SAB KE SAB CHOR HAIN

I have one thing where I strongly differ from the founder of AAP and one of the foundation on which AAP is based. That is his idea of sab ke sab chor hain. All of the political parties were formed for a reason based firmly on ideology rather than greed. Let me walk through some examples While we all know that Congress was the only party which existed at the time of independence and everyone rallied behind its leaders to attain the common good of all. While it has lost its sight on change today and have surrendered itself the decisions of a single family some of the heroes we worship today were from congress. Therefore we shout in favor of Patel (he lived for 2-3 years after independence) as much as any of our own leader in BJP. Mahatma remains to me the tallest of all humans I have read or seen, Shastri  (around a year of tenure) remains my favorite PM along with Vajpayee. And yes Nehru had a personality which everyone envied and desired, his understanding of the subjects had the depth and understanding which few had in his time and it is not just me it’s in my party leaders and even other party leaders to acknowledge the good work and the stature of leaders from other party, it was none other than Vajpayee who called Indira as Durga after the win against Bangladesh in 1971.And it was none other than Nehru who introduced Vajpayee as the future PM of India. AAP needs to go a long way to pick this culture, sab ke sab chor hain might be a way of venting out my anger temporarily but definitely it’s not going to take us anywhere.

Even other parties from Mayawati, Lallu , paswan ,Mulayam, NTR, DMK, AIDMK ,Left had reasons to exist. Some gave voice to the marginalized other gave voice to regional aspirations. Some were based on socialist values others were based on economic principles. And yes they all brought a change for this day to come when we can desire for more. And desire is not sin as nation mature the agendas will change yesterday it was about survival for dalits which gave people like lallu and mayawati a chance to run the govt so today it is governance and corruption. Agendas will never remain the same today what is dear to you may not remain an agenda at all in sometime. What became the reason of their rise became the reason of their fall. When survival was important they won and forgot that once people get voice they like to have growth. Tomorrow when they will have growth they may desire something else, elections in west have agendas which may look quite absurd to us today. And tomorrow when the agendas may change only those who are willing to change will survive, when communist failed in Russia so did the ability of left to govern India became dim. ManMohan Singh has presided over some of the greatest changes of our current history he was the finance minister when the economy took a u turn and he is the prime minister when the politics of the country is going through tectonic shift. It is the complete misrule and absence of any sense of governance that has set the mood of such despondency and utter helplessness and it is in that context that AAP is born. Since it is born out of this despair and hopeless scene it is definitely giving a voice to this change better than anyone else. But then others are fast catching up and bet me if in next elections we get a govt which works for governance and growth the foundation on which AAP is standing will lose ground. Good times have the ability to make bad time forgot easily. The cynicism which we are witnessing will fail to find ground and the rules of the game will change again if a party promising of governance come in power and performs well. And if it does not then AAP may further add to its tally. But if change indeed happens for good then AAP will have to change with the changing agendas a failure to do so might be suicidal. As of now AAP has little agenda except anti-corruption and I am not doubting their ability to come up with new agenda with changing times but since they don’t have the agenda I cannot either agree that it exist

Coming to your specific questions

1. Now no Diggi will EVERRR dare to underestimate and challenge a common man.
2. An year back, who would’ve imagined that that an election can be fought with transparent money?
3. An year back, who would’ve imagined that the lordship of two well established parties can be challenged by unknown faces?

All parties were at some point of time started with an emotional issue , shyama prasad mukhjee gave his life to enter Kashmir , when unity was an emotional issue people died for that. When governance have become an issue Kejriwal has taken a stand and I welcome that this is happening. BJP grew from 2 seats to the ruling party and opposition; it challenged the lordship of a single party. Who would have invested in it at that point of time? Collecting funds was as difficult at their time when even the enlightened NRI’s didn’t exist. Mobilization of resources was as difficult when democracy was crushed by indira gandhi and Jayaprakash narayan and other members of all political party came together to give hope. Yes all the ones who you call chor and power hungry. And this is not new news but I needed to tell you since neither do you read newspaper nor were we born to have witnessed the same. And when the rules of the game changed BJP moved to more progressive agendas like governance long before kejriwal came into picture. They have responded for change and that’s where I admire them, they have shown the flexibility and that why they are surviving. And they have not changed in words we have seen the growth in parts of the country where they have governed and people threw them the place where they messed up. They have shown how can a party move from one leader to another after a generational shift and have not depended on one leader for their survival. AAP is as of today totally dependent on kejriwal , democracy is yet to take birth and show its tantrums in AAP , it will raise it head in coming time. But again that does not take away the credit from them what they doing and common man is indeed giving them a long rope but then no rope is ever unending.

4. An year back, who would’ve thought that a party with no high-command can perform? Who would’ve thought that these young minds would come up with such an innovative idea like Call Delhi, campaigning at Railway stations, Human hoardings, Campaigning in Auto, Campaigning on social media etc? Who would have imagined they’ll be able to carve one of the best Volunteer networks in the world in merely 6 months time. If they can bring this much of innovation in their first move in democracy, why can’t they bring innovation to propel India towards growth & get back its lost credibility in recent years? On the other hand, what innovation did you see on BJPs front other than chanting modi modi…??

You are unaware so let me tell you that all other parties also attract the best of talent from different fields.BJP’s presence on social media , their door to door poll strategy, use of technology to identify areas weak and strong, Niti central their own version of online newspaper, YuvaTv their own channel on youtube, live streaming of their rallies on youtube, google + chat with their leaders , facebook presence , twitter responses, mission 272 website and  all this with regular personal to personal programs .Then they have RSS which runs a range of social programs for the marginalized. Again none of this takes away what AAP has achieved which is extraordinary but then just because I don’t know doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist for others. And have you heard the innovations in gujrat with solar panels on canals and separate set of power grids for industry and domestic use which has resulted in 100 percent power in Gujarat. Have you heard of BRTS where by investing the least money they have provided a service to the common man to travel in the city. Is anyone of this can be counted as innovation or not. If not then I can write the next response just in the name of the innovations that have happened. The same has been replicated in other BJP ruled states also. Right from the achievement of Vajpayee govt to Modi to shivraj Singh Chauhan, and the first IITIAN to be chief minister “Manohar Parekh” innovation is happening as I write this response.

 

5. Which party withdraws his candidate after their self-finding about criminal charges against one of its candidates? who would have imagined that one doesn’t need criminals to win people's heart. Even now, can your party dare to expel all their criminal candidates and promise that in future they will not give tickets to criminals?

I do not want to go in this debate but only yesterday an AAP MLA molested a lady and he got a warning from kejriwal. And then they requested all MP’s and MLA’s from other parties to join them. How do you explain it? When chors from other party join AAP do they become saint? Some kind of baptism program is going for these leaders? Also these things can’t be judged for a party so fresh in nature it will take some years for test of these strengths.

6. Had AAP not won it like this, think about how much mockery these political parties would have made of us, the common man!

I am with you buddy and they have put a slap on everyone who mocked the common man. Now they need to perform and that’s where I want them to show that by doing it not just talking about it.

7. 6 months ago everybody said, Kejriwal is going for an electoral suicide by choosing to go against 3 terms chief minister Sheila Dixit. Just think about it, one needs real courage and self belief to dare something like this. I am sure even Harshvardhan in his wildest dream can never dare this.

Buddy you need to start reading newspaper Sushma swaraj fought against Sonia Gandhi and then made karnataka her home state till the time she learnt kannada.Yes Sonia gandhi I am sure u will find it more crazy than the Sheila dixit .Other parties may have done so when they needed to prove the point I have not read enough about them.

8. I hear lot of people say Kejriwal ditched Anna, if Kejriwal ditched Anna, why can’t we also assume that Anna did no less to him…

I don’t know, a movement can be run by a political party and without a political party. Lokpal still remains a dream in India as well as Delhi even after people telling their choices in very clear words.

9. By the way, what is your favorite parties' stand on the issues that you mentioned along with good governance, corruption etc? What substantial steps BJP has taken in AP to differ Congress on Telangana? What did they do when Yedurappa was looting Belllari? Can they now assure there will not be any moist attack in Chattisgarh?


People wanted telengana so BJP supported that , earlier it supported creation of Bihar and Jharkahnd, it supported creation of MP, chattsigarh and they bifurcated in a way that none of the parties had bad feeling for the parting state. Is that a difference or only shouting loud sab ke sab chor hain is change.Yedurappa was removed from CM post and BJP lost, somehow same people who want change gave his party 20 percent of vote in elections. People vote for different reasons at different time.

 

10. Remember, when you chant BJP BJP, its NOT MODI who is going to be the MP of all 276 seats... there are going to be some criminals, some rapists, some murders, and some extortionist in that? why should we not challenge this system? While I do believe in Modi's ability, there are more NON-MODIs than MODIs in BJP.

It will happen with all parties when they will have millions of members, it’s not an excuse however and it needs to be rectified and this is where COMPETITIVE POLITICS come in play.

11. Last but not the least, don’t get misguided by the results that people really loved your party in other states, its just that they didn't have an HONEST alternative there

I think this is overconfidence. Dost every party face its day of loss and win, AAP will also face it. It is part and parcel of the game. I am sure if AAP really had sensed a point in MP, Rajasthan they would have gone for it. Kejriwal is not that innocent crazy guy. He picked his place with good plan and kudos to him for doing that. Now he needs to show me how is he different by giving a good governance.

I think you need to come out of your house to see how your house actually looks like. I am glad you are doing it soon, I am pretty sure you'll have a different point of view then. Good luck with your TimesOfIndia until then.

This is a good change that a lot of people who never took interest in politics have now started caring for it and therefore your point of view that we can do something has come into picture.A lot of us believed that India ka kuch nahi ho sakta hai .. but I have always believed that “Yes we can” when people rejected Anna movement I saw that as a change coming and even now I see the living democracy working in India. You are just looking at AAP winning or losing but I am trying to see beyond that.

And the house from where you are looking at your house .. us ghar ne kaisyon ke ghar jalaye hain..don’t look at your country from others point of view. We have unique challenges and unique solutions. Democracy does not even work in such a lively manner anywhere on earth. It is in our DNA it just got institutionalized in 1947

If AAP can do this miracle in a matter of few months; they can have your mentioned issues (telangana, kashmir, ambanis, employment etc) added in their agenda, what’s the bigg deal..?? Just to remind you, in my opinion they are not against Ambanis, they are against the unethical practices these bigger companies have been following in India…so what? What’s wrong in being against it..?? If you can question Robert Vadra for his unethical practices, why can’t Ambanis be questioned for something similar? Why can't Ambanis be taught to run business like Google and Facebook without indulging & encouraging a culture of bribe and corruption?


Do it that’s what I am asking for, don’t just tell me stories at prime time.

 

I wonder why and how impatient our so called ‘young generation’ has become. Why do we flip our sides ‘so quickly’ and ‘so often’…?? One day we say Sachin must retire, and the moment he scores even a fifty, we then say there is so much of Cricket left in him, and finally we all cry Sachin Sachin! Why can’t we realize we got to have a long term vision if we want to change the system from its root? W...hile we criticize AAP and Kejriwal in the current scenario, why don’t we think that:

I have not changed sides but you have taken a side I am all for them to prove themselves but then at one place we start to get restless that we need the change now and at the same time we want to fight all elections and want everyone to vote for them even before they have proved their worth in governance. Since you took the example of cricket let me explain that don’t become like commentators who will explain you the game from 15 point of view but will fail the minute they are put on ground. What’s the hurry for them to win complete lok sabha even before they show what they are capable of doing in Delhi?


1. What would happen to their credibility if they take support from Congress, and BJP. Wont the voters who voted for ‘unknown faces’ just because they so hated CONG and BJP feel cheated if AAP does so?

I have explained this before you don’t need to take support from anyone. You can run a minority govt which no one will pull down.Do you understand that first we need to agree on that.

2. Why is that a ‘power thirsty’ party like BJP, where Rajnath Singh & their senior party leaders were asserting just a day before that they ARREE going to form govt in all 4 states, took a UU turn all of a sudden, and started offering AAP to form govt? Are Indian Politicians so kind? Is it not a conspiracy to fool public by putting up a wrong image of their opponents, is it not Politics at its dirtiest?

When you fight a election you by default become a player for power , you had raised the Anna point. You can call him as someone who is trying to bring change by not being in power. Kejriwal choose the other route so he is also playing the power game. Power hungry is a bull shit term when you are fighting elections.(jayaprakash narayan and Gandhi could come to this definition or anna in current scenario). In an electoral game you fight to win election and bring the change. Did kejriwal not mention that they will have complete sweep, is he not asking BJP to form govt though they don’t have the majority.

3. Why, out of nowhere, BJP has now started saying that AAP should form a minority govt and pass the Lokpaal bill and other Agendas? BJP being the largest party, it is conceivable they would allow AAP to pass State Lokpal & other bills when it comes to voting for the Bill? In that case won’t AAP lose its credibility and Ground? Fir na to Party bachegi na Bill pass hoga? What would the common men do then?

BJP never said that (I am not sure) I said that. This is childish if u get a good bill and the opposition opposes it they will be taught a lesson by people. It will not be a loss of credibility but in fact a point to prove that yes they can do. In fact if they are planning to run loksabha elections it will allow them to concentrate on that instead of focusing again on Delhi elections. Somehow you are thinking that whatever I am suggesting is against them that are not true. If they prove themselves in 6 months they might pose a graver danger to other parties. Could anyone oppose food security bill even though they knew that its huge expenditure and not a good idea… no one wants to be identified as opposing a popular bill.

4. Have we forgotten how both Congress and BJP made a Mockery of ‘Democracy’ & ‘Public Sentiments’ in the last winter session when they were “ACTING” to be attempting to pass the Lokpal bill? On what ground CONG & BJP should be trusted again?

These are arguments from past, now AAP is in power. Pass it and resign else fall while trying to pass it.You can pass it without trusting them. Put the ball in their court by bringing the bill.

5. If AAP is not accepting BJPs suspiciously illicit offer, why is BJP portraying it as if AAP is committing a CRIME? What’s the big deal in going for a reelection if we want to live in a peace of mind for next 5 years? It is not going to be the first re-election in Indian Democracy, both cong and BJP have done it in the past.

That’s no crime neither did anyone said like that. Let them do that if that’s the fate it is my personal opinion that they should go for governance route and prove rather than without that experience.


6. Why have we forgotten BJP-JDU did the same thing in Bihar when a hung up assembly was caused by Ramvilas Paswan? They then came with a clear majority in the re-poll and thus were able to do some really good progress in Bihar. Imagine if there wouldn’t have been a re-elections, Paswan-Lalu would have been shitting on their heads all the time not allowing them to do anything. O God! that would have been a nightmare! Is BJP not trying something similar with AAP?

Bihar is an incorrect example in this case. When that happened, Bihar was at its lowest point in current history. Men were kidnapped in broad day light. There was no industry, no growth, no law and order … absolutely nothing. Supreme Court had called it the JUNGLE RAJ. By not giving a government in that state it was still better than the govt people were used to. Delhi by that accounts was a well governed state with metro, roads and a thriving industry. However Sheila Dixit was a 3 times chief minister and the spillover of the central govt misdeeds, her own image after common wealth games and nirbhaya  had its ripple effect in Delhi. It will be a challenge for any party to bring a sense of change in a city which is usually quite well governed being the capital of the country. Leaving that city bhagwan bharose will be hugely unpopular where industry, growth and other things will get impacted. You just can’t leave a city which contributes 3 percent to India’s GDP without governance. People there are impatient believe me.And tht’s why I am of that opinion.

7. Why is BJP giving it a shade that taxpayer’s money will go in vain? It takes 40 crores for reelections in Delhi, and this money is nothing as compared to what BJP have looted in Bellary? If they are so much concern about taxpayers money can they promise they will seize Yedurappa’s property and return a part of it back to Indian Govt? Moreover isn’t this money is worth spending for a 5 years stable honest government?

Don’t know if BJP said that, they said they are ready to sit in opposition or face reelection. Kejriwal suggested that BJP and congress join hand Harsh vardhan didn’t suggested that. Congress extended support to AAP. If re-elections are the route let it be nobody cares?



 

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Different Shades of Nationalism – [Part -1 (Tagore)]


This article was first published on Centre Right

In 2000, NDA Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, during a visit to Srinagar, came up with the imaginative and bold promise that the Centre would resolve the Kashmir issue, “insaniyat ke dairey mein,” or within the ambit of humanity. It was an important and attractive departure from New Delhi's previous position that the issue had to be resolved within the framework of the Indian Constitution.
 It raised some eyebrows because it marked a change in the usual stance but it was greeted by thunderous applause by the Kashmiris. I don’t think that Vajpayee was talking of creating a separate country but then what exactly did he meant , how he looked to accommodate the aspirations of Kashmiri people within Indian nation?

Similarly when in an interview Narendra Modi announced that he is a Hindu and he is a nationalist and therefore we can safely call him as a Hindu nationalist, the announcement was covered in the main headlines of all the newspapers. While media’s obsession with Modi was understood what these incidents did were to challenge our normal understanding of the concept of nation and nationalism .It took us out of our comfort zone and forced us to think what exactly is nationalism and gave us a chance to look back into history and ponder upon the concept of nation and nationalism. How old are these concepts and what the different sides to this are.

Nationalism
As per wikipedia “The term nationalism was coined by Johann Gottfried Herder (nationalismus) during the late 1770s.Precisely where and when nationalism emerged is difficult to determine, but its development is closely related to that of the modern state and the push for popular sovereignty that surfaced with the French Revolution and the American Revolution in the late 18th century and culminated with the ethnic/national revolutions of Europe, for instance the Greek War of Independence

Nation
Again if we look into Wikipedia for the meaning of nation we get the following definition” The term nation is a complex concept that has a variety of definitions. Factors such as time and location affect how people have to come to view the term. There are two widely accepted explanations of a nation, as stated above. To some nation refers to a shared cultural experience, such as the Nation of Islam; a religious organization that holds no physical borders yet shares a common bond because of shared beliefs. Inter-wound in those beliefs is also recognition of a similar homeland: Africa. Some refer to one's nationality as their race or ethnicity; this often categorizes people of similar skin color into the same nation that others do not perceived to exist. Conversely, nation can be viewed as a legal state with internationally recognized borders. Neither definition is incorrect, that is why it is so complex. Each definition is valid and the definitions change over time. While the conventional definition is a people who share a common territory and government irrespective of their ethnic make-up, it is not the only explanation”

But where does India fits in any of these definitions of nation or nationalism, a country where we have different races, people with different religions, different cultures and caste. We can obvious not be a nation of just legal boundaries. This therefore requires that we here in India devise our own definition of nation and nationalism and try to find out the threads which can bind people from different religions, races, castes and color together. Any definition that we come up with will always have to be keep reinventing with changes that time will force but may be if we get our fundamentals right it could be used for a very long time.

Indian Nationalism as viewed by Tagore
When the concept of nationalism as we know today was shaping up in late 18-19th century there were different opinions on what should be the way for Indian nationalism. Would Indian nationalism be the way we see nation and nationalism in west or does India with its different way will have a more Indian version of this nationalism. To this concept there were galaxy of leaders and thinkers who have made their contribution and I would like to touch most of these ideas as we progress on this read but to start with I will take with the idea of nationalism from gurudev Rabindranath Tagore. His ideas on nationalism were one of the most radical. He was one of India’s greatest philosophers and thinker of his time, Tagore’s work on nationalism divided in 3 essays outlined his idea of nationalism. As Uma Dasgupta in her introduction to Tagore’s selected writings on education and nationalism points out that “Tagore education work and his own nationalism were rooted in an original vision of India’s history amounting to deviation from both colonist historiography and the nationalist ideology of that times…his reasoning was based on his historical understanding of his country’s formation as a social civilization founded on a continual social adjustment.” He totally rejected nationalism as understood in the western sense.

In his essay on nationalism in west he defined nationalism as a combination of politics and commerce whose end goal is to achieve success. “A nation, in the sense of the political and economic union of a people, is that aspect which a whole population assumes when organized for a mechanical purpose”. His prophecies that to survive as a nation man has to give up moral in his own words he said “That history has come to a stage when the moral man , the complete man is more and more giving way , almost without knowing it, to make room for the political and the commercial man, the man of the limited purpose. This aided by wonderful progress in science, is assuming gigantic proportion power, causing he upset of man’s moral balance, obscuring this human side under the shadow of soul less organization”

While it takes some moment to realize that indeed what Tagore said was critical but indeed the times when he said that nations were indeed based on these very ideas? Britain was at its imperialistic best at that time and the pride that men of that nation carried them with could have hardly been morally acceptable under the normal situation. Even today those ideas remain relevant as we see how way each nation follows its interest without a thought about the humanity, and this then makes us think back has humanity become a causality of nationalism.
The thought of Gurudev forces us to think in a direction that is so unusual for us whose mind has been trained enough to think in one way. During 19th century when nationalism actually took the shape that we know today the world was pretty different, while we take proud that at that time while Europe was one race without any color and India was an amalgam of races each finding its own way to get to the ultimate truth, however today as we see ourselves we see the west is changing and they have opened up to more people and different races from different part of the world are earning their livelihoods there. While in past our influence spread beyond mere boundaries of the nation’s today west is also increasingly becoming borderless though within their own area of comfort .Therefore the conventional definitions that we looked above in coming decades may not find resonance even in west.
In his writing on nationalism for japan and the same equally relevant for India Tagore said ‘you cannot with a light heart accept the modern civilization with all its tendencies, methods and structures, and dream that they are inevitable. You must apply your eastern mind, your spiritual strength, your love of simplicity, your recognition of social obligation, in order to cut out a new path for this great unwieldy car of progress, shrieking out its loud discords as it runs”
The urgency with which Tagore push whole of Asia to find out their own definition of nation and nationalism was based on the fact that here in Asia and especially in India the problems with nationalism were never the same as that in Europe especially at his time. While Europe was mostly one religion and one race we had a plenty of both of them. In his own words Tagore specifies the difference of problem between Europe and India “We have to remember that in Europe, where peoples had their racial unity from the beginning, and where natural resources were insufficient for the inhabitants, the civilization has naturally taken the character of political and commercial aggressiveness. For on the one hand they had no internal complications, and on the other they had to deal with neighbors who were strong and rapacious. To have perfect combination among themselves and a watchful attitude of animosity against others was taken as the solution of their problems. In former days they organized and plundered, in the present age the same spirit continues - and they organize and exploit the whole world.

 But from the earliest beginnings of history, India has had her own problem constantly before her - it is the race problem. Each nation must be conscious of its mission and we, in India, must realize that we cut a poor figure when we are trying to be political, simply because we have not yet been finally able to accomplish what was set before us by our providence.” While some of thinkers of that age like Aurobindo tried to find out a common origin to most different races in India considering that people following different religions have mostly been converts from Hinduism and appealed for a racial unity, Tagore accepted the diversity of Indian races and tried to look how did India worked with multiple races over thousands of years. While a lot of other leaders like Swami Vivekananda, Aurobindo, Tilak openly suggested that for India Hinduism was at the core of nationalism, it is surprising to see Tagore who takes a different path and yet there are striking similarities in what he sees a solution for India and Indian Nationalism.

 “Once again I draw your attention to the difficulties India has had to encounter and her struggle to overcome them. Her problem was the problem of the world in miniature. India is too vast in its area and too diverse in its races. It is many countries packed in one geographical receptacle. It is just the opposite of what Europe truly is, namely one country made into many. Thus Europe in its culture and growth has had the advantage of the strength of the many, as well as the strength of the one. India, on the contrary, being naturally many, yet adventitiously one has all along suffered from the looseness of its diversity and the feebleness of its unity. A true unity is like a round globe, it rolls on, carrying its burden easily; but diversity is a many-cornered thing which has to be dragged and pushed with all force. Be it said to the credit of India that this diversity was not her own creation; she has had to accept it as a fact from the beginning of her history. In America and Australia, Europe has simplified her problem by almost exterminating the original population. Even in the present age this spirit of extermination is making itself manifest, by inhospitably shutting out aliens, through those who themselves were aliens in the lands they now occupy. But India tolerated difference of races from the first, and that spirit of toleration has acted all through her history.
 Her caste system is the outcome of this spirit of toleration. For India has all along been trying experiments in evolving a social unity within which all the different peoples could be held together, yet fully enjoying the freedom of maintaining their own differences. The tie has been as loose as possible, yet as close as the circumstances permitted. This has produced something like a United States of a social federation, whose common name is Hinduism.

India had felt that diversity of races there must be and should be whatever may be its drawback, and you can never coerce nature into your narrow limits of convenience without paying one day very dearly for it. In this India was right; but what she failed to realize was that in human beings differences are not like the physical barriers of mountains, fixed forever - they are fluid with life's flow, they are changing their courses and their shapes and volume.


Therefore in her caste regulations India recognized differences, but not the mutability which is the law of life. In trying to avoid collisions she set up boundaries of immovable walls, thus giving to her numerous races the negative benefit of peace and order but not the positive opportunity of expansion and movement. She accepted nature where it produces diversity, but ignored it where it uses that diversity for its world-game of infinite permutations and combinations. She treated life in all truth where it is manifold, but insulted it where it is ever moving. Therefore Life departed from her social system and in its place she is worshipping with all ceremony the magnificent cage of countless compartments that she has manufactured.

 The same thing happened where she tried to ward off the collisions of trade interests. She associated different trades and professions with different castes. It had the effect of allaying for good the interminable jealousy and hatred of competition - the competition which breeds cruelty and makes the atmosphere thick with lies and deception. In this also India laid all her emphasis upon the law of heredity, ignoring the law of mutation, and thus gradually reduced arts into crafts and genius into skill.”

 We see how Tagore looks into past to come up with a solution and he sees some merits in the caste system which was designed to let people from different races co-exist and earn their livelihood from trade and commerce however later that system became so rigid that it became a bigger enemy of the nation. Today we can see the barriers of caste crumbling down and India regaining the flexibility that was lost during the last millennia, we need to remember that now we need to build back something original and suited to Indian context. A copy paste job from west will have the effect of jumping from one evil to another. We have to therefore find out what is the common thread that can hold all of us together.

 From the time of Tagore the west has now become more multi-race and multi-cultural society, and may be now the west also needs to search for answers that we have been trying for long. But while the situation has changed from past the solutions that both may seek may be very different. West has built upon nations with values of equality, liberty and rule of law something that we are also trying to do but then that the west in pursue to build the concept of nation has gone so far that it has removed all any space for any soul, that the west has openly taught us that nation, and the govt should be away from religion. But religion if that mean nurturing every soul , if religion means nurturing the moral of man and if religion does not mean an inclination to a particular practice of a race and their beliefs then should we not look to nurture religion in our  the conscious of the nation.

 In this context it is interesting to hear what India’s former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee had to say on the European concept of "secularism" .He considered European concept of "secularism" inappropriate for his interpretation of Indian culture, He describes the Indian secular as follows:

“Mahatma Gandhi describes the correct attitude towards religion as 'Sarva Dharma Sambhava', equal respect to all religions. The concept of 'Sarva Dharma Sambhava' is somewhat different from European secularism, which is independent of religion ... We may say that the Indian concept of secularism is that of Sarva Dharma Sambhava ... Sarva Dharma Sambhava is not against any religion. It treats all religions with equal respect. And, therefore, it can be said that the Indian concept of secularism is more positive”.It is probably around these concepts that he must have thought to accommodate the aspirations of people from Kashmir to Punjab to Kanyakumari.

Every time we start to look for a solution to Indian challenge in an Indian way we stumble upon Hinduism and It is probably this thread of progressive Hinduism which believes in welfare for all, free from shackles of castes yet having a consciousness and soul of her own built upon the modern values of west can become a base for now and for some foreseeable future for all of us to hold together.

When you read Tagore you flow with his thoughts, he makes you feel what lies beneath the layers and layers of constant abrasion that we have learnt so willingly and have come to accept as the ultimate truth, his concept of nation is so different and yet so beautiful is his way to describe his thoughts that you don’t have a choice but to think and look back if what you think was indeed the right way to see through things. He does not force you to admire upon his idea by the sheer force of arguments or by manufacturing of half-truths in history, by persistent misrepresentation of other races and culture of unfavorable sentiments towards them, He accepts the greatness of all civilizations and the beauty of all, that what they have contributed to mankind but then he touch upon you with the very vital of mankind which man has started forgetting is his moral values. And when he touch upon that he tears apart any shred of doubts that you may have allowed to rest your souls in , or when he tells you how you have allowed your mind to vitiate our soul, that the western concept of saying business is business , war is war , politics is politics is morally so wrong. So relevant his words seems to be in current context , and when he declares with all his moral authority  that man’s business has to be more than mere business, and so has to be his politics and war all the dead that had stuck to your thoughts seems to give way to the fresh and original in man.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Agenda 2014: Can Big Data & Analytics clean up India’s Judicial Mess?


As India moves towards the election year we need to look around the issues that we would like as a country to address that will help India to become a better place to live. India’s judicial system is one such place which has affected all of us. The current state of our judicial system is such that it takes decades to get a verdict and even worse are many million cases that have not seen the light of the day and it is difficult to see any hope for them.

A quick look into some statistics gives us a complete picture; we have more than three crores (30 million) pending cases at various courts. To add to litigants' woes, there's also a shortage of judges as vacancies are not filled: high courts have 32% fewer judges than they should and district courts have a 21% shortfall. India has approximately 11-12 judges per million persons, as opposed to the global average of around 50 judges per million.Some years ago, a Delhi High Court judge reckoned it would take more than 450 years to clear the backlog given then judge numbers.

Judicial Reforms

In order to address the problem plaguing Indian judicial system a range of Judicial reforms have been suggested. Some of the suggestions that are there in common discussion are
      ·         Setting up of more number of fast track courts to quickly resolve the cases

·         Improvement in Judicial Procedures

·         National Litigation Policy - The Centre has formulated a National Litigation Policy to reduce the cases pending in various courts in India under the National Legal Mission to reduce average pendency time from 15 years to 3 years.

·         Setting up of Judicial Appointments Commission

Technology

However after a lot of thought that have gone into these studies on judicial reforms a lot of them have tried to de-link the relation between the judge-population ratios and have pointed to the fact that the answers to streamlining the working of the judicial system are not to be found in resolving pendency by increasing the number of judges. They lie elsewhere, some of the suggestions that they have given are listed above. There seems to however one very critical factor missed by all studies done and that is the Technology factor. It must have found a mention somewhere here and there but no one goes into the detail of how exactly India can use its huge Information Technology capabilities to clear the mess in its judicial system. The answer may however be there in how to use make the correct use of Big data and analytics capabilities.

Big Data & Analytics

Big Data’ is a popular term used to the recent explosion in data, which is fuelled in particular by the ubiquity of the Internet and smartphones. Walking to the bus stop, writing a movie review, tweeting and liking something on Facebook are all common informal data streams. Information of all kinds is produced daily on an unimaginable scale. Conventional data conjures up ideas of surveys and research. The idea is to use this unprecedented amount of information to innovate and change our world. Big Data presents the opportunity to avoid troublesome issues causation, simply looking for correlations in the data to better understand our world. This shift represents one of the most fundamental changes to our society in recent years. Historically, we have been restricted by lack of information, whereas now we have abundance.

However, this data is no good without anything to make sense of it. This is where algorithms step in to frolic in massive data sets. The intelligent extrapolation from large amounts of data can be used to make sense of our world. Using analytics, correlations can help to predict earthquakes, divorce, elections, better allocate resources, optimize sporting endeavors, and revolutionize healthcare provision and countless other uses.

The question is whether this new explosion in data could provide a backdrop to a fundamental change in law. The probable answer is Yes, Big data works with huge volume of data and as I just mentioned above we have millions of resolved and pending cases. Therefore the technology that can be used to predict election results, can be used in medical transcription can definitely be used in the field of law.

Clinical v Mechanical Prediction

An article by Darragh Hyland and Owen Collins “Future of law” gives us an insight into this whole question. Lawyers are often asked to provide predictions. When it comes to prediction, there are essentially two possibilities available.
First -The clinical method. ‘From my experience and in my opinion, it is likely that you have a good/bad case.’ This method of handling data is informal and subjective. It is the method that prevails today. The legal expert determines from his opinion, experience and expertise the most likely outcome of the case before him.

The second approach is known as mechanical or actuarial prediction. With this method, we look to statistical means of prediction. The opinion of the lawyer is irrelevant in this context. Rather, the outcome is predicted by following an analysis of patterns ensconced in previously acquired case law and general legal data.

If you think this mechanical method sounds inflexible and entirely robotic, you are not alone. However, empirical research has consistently and definitively proven this type of prediction to be superior to clinical prediction. For our actuarial prediction we look for as large a data set as possible. This data would tell us about cases and how they were decided. More data means a better chance to find correlations.

Application Area
India should be seriously looking to explore this option and more discussions are required to identify the level till which this technology be used to help aid our judicial system. While some may argue that this should be limited to be used only for lawyers or law firms I see it having a role even on the desk of the judges at least in the lower courts. My argument stems in the fact that most of the court cases in the lower court are more about judicial procedures and the application of correct laws for a particular case. Say for e.g. take the case of thousands of pending accidental claims cases which usually takes 6-7 years to get a verdict however if we look closely into the case details we will see that it is investigation by the police (which gets ready within in matter of weeks) that remain as the most conclusive piece of document on which the judgment will be based. What if this assumption is verified by an analytic system which across millions of cases in the past is able to tell the judge and the lawyers that the party against which the investigation report was based lost the case in a majority number of times? Will the party who is supposed to lose the case will still spend a considerable amount of time and money on such a losing case?

The way Indian judiciary works we have lower courts, high courts and Supreme Court. It is however left to high courts and supreme courts to interpret the constitution and it is only there where a huge expertise of the constitution however at the lower court level big data and analytics can prove to be a major helping hand for judges, lawyers and the parties in the dispute. Analytics may be able to guide parties in dispute even before they come to the courts about their chances of winning or losing a case. It may also show the variation for a case won against all the odds as what were the extra pieces of evidence or legal data that were invoked in such a case.

Question of Quality – Judicial accountability
On the question of quality we need to look into perspective, to reduce the number of pending cases a huge number of fast track courts were set up. More than 1,000 fast track courts have disposed of more than three million cases in past few years however in order to achieve quick resolution did they compromised on quality ? Hasty trials raise fears of possible miscarriages of justice. But what if the fast track courts were given a helping hand in the form of big data technology where the judges took a leaf out of millions of similar cases to arrive to a quick judgment, definitely this will improve the quality of the judgment.
The technology may even flag a possible judgment as against the popular predictable judgment which happens a lot in cases being fought for the poor people. The judges may then have to give an extra explanation as why did they choose to give a judgment against the normal sense. While technology may not be binding it will introduce accountability in the system as the system will question on the wisdom of the judges. This may come as an extra benefit for the use of technology.

Roadmap for Future
What is suggested here is however bound to disrupt the way we see judicial system as of today but predictive coding is a disruptive innovation that will change how law is practiced. The magnitude of the problem gives us an opportunity where we can apply technology to the problem and come up with a totally innovative way to address this problem. Increasing the number of judges by too big a count is not the answer to our problems and it will create even more problems to deal with.

However even if we look to choose to adopt the technology there has to be ground work done, instant digitalization of our huge amount of legal data records will be the first step, so that the same information could be used to produce a pattern ( it is in addition to all the Judicial reforms suggestions mentioned above). Again this will require some funding, can this be done by private corporations? Again a different way of looking at problem but then if corporates are allowed to come in the judicial system will it not do good for the complete industry? We already have LPO’s doing similar kind of work being outsourced from outside can’t that strength be used to deliver things for our own country and in turn generate jobs and deliver quick justice. Will we be able to move in this direction? All I can say is that the time is ripe to start this debate.