Under PM Modi India has started a slew of initiatives
meant to bolster India’s ties with its neighbors. However the dialog with Bangladesh has opened
up a Pandora ’s Box. BJP has raised the issue of illegal immigrants time and
again and also have raised the issue as how the illegal immigrant population
from Bangladesh is being used to alter the demographics of north eastern states
and have been used dangerously by other political parties to create a favorable
vote bank out of these immigrants. It is this issue of illegal immigrant which
has not gone down well with many a well-wishers of BJP as this new approach of
reconciliation and talks have not spelt out what will be the status of these
illegal immigrants. It is therefore important to discuss and debate what all
options New Delhi has when dealing with Dhaka and what all benefits does it get
out of resolving all by standing issues with Bangladesh.
Good relations with neighbors have a dominos effect
where in relation with one country can be used to show the benefit of being in
good terms with India to other neighbors. It is in this context that the
relationship with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar and Srilanka becomes extremely
significant where peace with them can sometime be used to convince other
hostile neighbors like Pakistan to have a more practical relation with India.
However relationship with Pakistan is not the only benefit that India gain out
of this good relationship with other countries.
North
East as India’s Electronic Manufacturing hub?
PM Modi in his election rallies talked about 9 percent
growth rates however even after removing the current policy deadlock and
bringing in more reforms clocking 9 percent of growth could be a tough task at hand.
Modi will have to search new avenues of growth, he will have to lookout for new
regions which can contribute to overall higher growth rates. It is here where
India’s North East becomes extremely critical. Just like Nepal is a landlocked country,
India’s northeast are landlocked states. The north east of India is connected
with the rest of the country by the vulnerable siliguri corridor also called as
Chicken’s Neck - a very narrow strip of land linking mainland India to
its north-eastern states. The Siliguri
Corridor is at one point less than 14 miles and has therefore limitation using
it to connect to the rest of North east. One of the far most and the biggest
benefits that India can achieve by having a good relationship with Bangladesh ,
Nepal ,Bhutan and Myanmar is India will have the opportunity to unleash the
potential of India’s north eastern states.
Modi did gave an insight into this when he talked about
his vision to develop Kolkata as an important port city and claiming the status
of regional growth engine. However he understands that developing Kolkata will
not be enough as well as possible without a good having a good relationship
with Bangladesh. India will have to look at developing at least couple of
megacities in North east. With plenty of fresh water and good availability of
cheap hydro power can North East be developed as the electronic manufacture hub
for India as well as for India’s neighbors? Can Bangladesh here provide the
critical land route to connect north east to rest of India as well as provide
alternate sea routes to export the goods to other parts of the world?
Pakistan-Terrorism
& China
While India’s borders on the western front are marred
with terrorism and unstable regimes, the borders on eastern front are far more
stable and much more favorable to Indian interests. It is this opportunity
India needs to tap. The significance of having Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar
not being used for anti-Indian activities is well known. However Bangladesh
holds lot more promises .It is trying to avoid going the fundamentalist route
Pakistan has gone. It is showing the will to fight the fundamentalist elements
and therefore a secular moderate Bangladesh will always be beneficial for
Indian interests.
The relationship with these countries are also
significant from the Chinese point of view. As soon as Modi govt came to power
they did a significant policy reversal in terms of China-North East issue. As
per the new policy India will now be looking to encourage population
settlements in border areas of the region. Again supporting such activities
require a thriving economy in the region. A thriving northeast will bring many
positives to Indian economy, India’s defense as well as reducing the isolation
of north eastern people towards mainland India.
Illegal
Immigrant problem
While Bangladesh has the capacity to unlock the north
east out of its current isolation it is also true that some of the worst ethnic
riots going on in Assam are a result of this immigrant population. A change in
demographics not just undermines national security in the long run it can
threaten India’s unity and integrity.
However India’s attempt to send back illegal immigrants
have had little success in the past. Illegal Migrant Determination Tribunal
(IMDT) which was designed especially for Assam State, became the biggest hurdle
and was the main impediment or barrier in the identification and deportation of
illegal migrants before being stuck down by Supreme Court.
Even deportation under the Foreigners Act also remained
problematic. In 2003, the then Home Minister L. K. Advani ordered all states to
deport illegal immigrants. A few weeks’ later 265 people were sent to the
border, but authorities in Bangladesh declined to accept them. In fact India’s
Border Security Forces (BSF), and its counterpart the Bangladesh Border Guards
(then called the Bangladesh Rifles), came to the point of violence over the issue.
There is no database of the actual Bangladeshis who have sneaked in Indian
Territory. Any high handling of the issue in absence of such a list may only
worsen the situation.
Reluctant
Bangladesh
There is another aspect of this discussion. In the past
Bangladesh has been extremely reluctant to give any transit to India via its
territory. Well this is not new. With all neighbors India find extremely
hostile responses most of the time. Sometimes it is due to timid responses to
any issue, sometimes due to unclear policy begetting such responses. And the
root cause of such weak responses are again back to economical reason.
Solution
- An incremental approach with multiple options?
The biggest hurdle holding India-Bangladesh
relationship is the illegal immigrant problem. And the real reason for this
immigration are economic factors. The question therefore is that can India
afford to think itself in isolation anymore? Being one of the top economies of
the world India cannot ask to be integrated with the world economy and isolated
from its neighbors at the same time. Then what are the solutions to India?
Could an incremental approach with multiple options towards this problem may
have a better chance of working out. While these countries can unlock north
east potential, holding the growth of north east on only these factors can be
detrimental
The approach therefore should be to work simultaneously
to develop multiple options. Increased focus on north east development via
development of new industrial corridors should be the focus of new govt whether
India has a transit via Bangladesh or not. It was important to notice the 5000
crore allotment in rail budget given for development of railways in North-East.
Is the Modi govt thinking on same lines where it is opening up talks with
Bangladesh but at the same time not limiting itself to it?
Identify
Illegal Immigrants and convey the enormity of the issue
As part of incremental approach the first step should
be on getting identified all the illegal immigrants. This is easier said than
done. There have been conflicting reports on the number of people coming from
Bangladesh and till the time we India does not complete the exercise of
identifying these people it will be impossible to move to any solution. The Assam
accord which lays out the rules to identify foreign citizens should be used to
arrive at such a list at the earliest. Only when India has a comprehensive list
ready handling over of such a list to Bangladesh can be done. While immediate
deportation of so many may not be possible immediately once New Delhi brings
the enormity of the issue on the tables of discussion it can always help India
in bargain at other places. The enormity of the situation could also be used to
explain Bangladesh the urgency to push for a land and river transit through the
region which may help bring prosperity on both sides of the border containing
any further migration. Shying away from such discussions have not helped India
in the past and any future discussions should always be done in the core
interest of India.
Simplified
Visa Regime
The second step to the incremental approach may lie in
having a simplified visa regime and allow limited number of Bangladeshi
nationals to earn their livelihood in India. Should the existing illegal
immigrants who have been identified be provided temporary work permits identifying
their foreign origin till the time proper arrangements are not made to send
them back?
Making this movement legal will have the benefit that it
will not alter the demographics of the north eastern states of the country
which is the root cause of unrest in Assam and other parts of north east. Can
this approach therefore fulfill the BJP’s pledge of safeguarding the interest
of communities living in north east as well as give govt the capability to
regulate this movement. However with labor still cheap and surplus in India
allowing even limited number of people on the other side of border to earn
livelihood may not be an easy idea to sell.
However sending back people when the govt across border
is not cooperating is easy said than done. Bangladesh has in the past refused
to take back immigrants accusing India of pushing back its own people inside Bangladesh.
It was this reason which forced the Vajpayee govt to think of granting
temporary work permit to all illegal immigrants till both the countries arrive
at a solution. Will Modi govt take a leaf from Vajpayee’s govt? It is important
to understand that only when there are enough opportunities in Bangladesh such
a movement can be curtailed.
Increased
Investment in Bangladesh
The third step of this incremental approach addresses
the problem of opportunities in Bangladesh. The solution lies in India
increasing its investment in Bangladesh manifolds. As India plan to spend
trillions on its own infrastructure it can also look towards increasing its
investment in infrastructure projects in Bangladesh something which may
increase opportunities within Bangladesh as well as that investment can be
looked as a part of the overall investment in north east development. Any
moving back of illegal immigrants back to Bangladesh may have to deal with
their rehabilitation. Could the investment in infrastructure be used to
rehabilitate those moved back, could the labor used on those projects be the
immigrants who are moved back?
The above approaches may help in reducing bad blood
between both governments and the same time convey Bangladesh the enormity of
the situation India faces. Well does that all sound extremely radical, it may
indeed be like but only a favorable solution to all parties will have a chance
to succeed.
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