Vlog : Uri Attack: Is it right time to punish Pakistan?

Uri Attack: Is it right time to punish Pakistan?

Uri Attack: Is it right time to punish Pakistan?

As we talk 18 soldiers have died and 30 soldiers are injured. The response from the PM and govt is pretty strong worded. There is a huge outcry for a decisive action; however there are voices which fear that any action may result in escalation of tension between two nuclear armed neighbors. It’s a tough call, can an escalation result in a nuclear war or internationalization of the Kashmir issue. What are the options before India and what are the pros and cons of such actions?

Has Baluchistan Issue irked Pakistan?

The recent attacks have come after PM Modi made a reference to the Baluchistan issue? The best way for Pakistani army to deflect the issue back to Kashmir was such an attack; it achieves multiple purposes for Pakistan.  First it brings back attention to Kashmir, demoralizes the Indian army and it humiliates the elected govt. in India. It also gives voices to certain segment in India to push the govt. to go back and talk to Pakistan. It looks like Pakistan has made a strategic move which has pushed India in a corner. This is indeed a challenging situation however if we quickly look through at the various options that Indian govt. can exercise it does not look to be very well thought out by Pakistan.

India has plenty of option to retaliate and it should start with bringing back the focus to Baluchistan. Was the recent attack a response by the Pakistani army against the Indian PM raising the issue human rights conditions in Baluchistan and POK, could India point out these obvious links and reinforce its commitment to human rights for the people in these region.

Surgical Strikes: Will it result in nuclear war?

The second question in the mind of the people is can India make surgical strikes inside the terrorist camps in POK? This is a complex question, while technically the POK is Indian Territory; however the China Pakistan economic corridor passing through it makes any attacks on this region extremely sensitive issue. The generals in Pakistan have also held the threat of a nuclear war in case India decides to strike back. The situation looks threatening and no government would like to jeopardize the growth India is achieving.

However the same arguments that we are holding for not doing strikes actually work in India’s favor. Pakistan today is globally isolated at each and every international forum. Afghanistan and Bangladesh has both accused Pakistan of a sponsor of terrorism in their country. There is little support Pakistan has left in US congress where relations with India has taken a priority and there have been multiple occasions where aid and arms to Pakistan has been cut out by the US congress. Even the Saudis have dumped Pakistan.

The only support that Pakistan is getting these days is from China, but the question is will China back Pakistan in case there is a conflict like situation along the LOC. The CPEC is being protected by 15000 Pakistani soldiers along with 7000 Chinese workers working over it. Leave the nuclear bomb threat even escalation of tension and war like situation with India will make China extremely uncomfortable and the CPEC unviable.The truth is that in case of a surgical strike Pakistan may not even be able to escalate it to the level of war without killing the CPEC project and alienating China forever. This will be a big blow to Pakistani economy. Most likely Pakistan would do what India did after the parliament attacks.They may put up a huge buildup of army across the Indian border and there may be several ceasefire violations for some coming months. Frankly speaking the whole move by Pakistan is based on the assumption that India would not strike back. In case India strikes back no one in Pakistan seems to be aware or have thought through of what is going to happen. The only head that may roll may be the head of Nawaz Sharif. The nuclear threat thus seems to be an overly overblown and that should not be the reason for India to hold back.

Impact on Indian economy?

While the likelihood of the situation escalating is negligible if it happens it may bring economic hardship for India. The Indian economy has still not recovered fully from the follies of the UPA era and any tensions at the border may hit FDI, tourism and services industry and may thus delay the full industrial recovery which is still a few quarters away. However there is never a right time to take such calls, on the positive side this is the time for least impact. The govt. has been successfully able to get the GST through and there is no big legislative or economic agenda on its platter in the near future. Global Oil prices and commodity prices are still close to comfort level in case the govt. decides to mop up extra revenue to deal with escalation.

International fallout

Does India risks internationalizing the Kashmir issue if it goes for surgical strike in the terrorist camps in the POK area? Well for time being the Internalization of Kashmir issue may happen , however looking at the global isolation Pakistan is facing and the little appetite countries across the world are having for support of terrorism the maximum the world may ask India and Pakistan is to seat and talk. India can clearly do that, it has never shied away from talking on Kashmir and talks can restart with the threat of terrorism going away. However one casualty of any escalation would be India’s quest for NSG seat as any escalation may antagonize China which may delay it a little further. However a strong response from India will also put India in a new light which may help India to negotiate from a position of strength on other issues in coming years.

Domestic Political Impact

One word of caution on the political side of the question ,while strong response to Pakistan may for a little while bring up the moral of the Indian people and the supporters of the govt,  Economic hardships last much longer and may not really be a winning factor in near future if in case it impacts inflation(this scenario however may not occur as Pakistan may not like to escalate the issue beyond a certain point, war seems to be a distant possibility)  However Lok Sabha elections are still 2.5 years away and whichever way things go it is a safe period for the govt. to take such an action.

The govt. must be weighing all these options in the coming days ahead, will we see some action? Well let’s wait for the UN general assembly session to get over. 

#Pathankot: Is Afghanistan the key to Pakistani adventurism?

It’s less than 15 days when PM Modi offered a hand of friendship to bring normalcy in relations with Pakistan by visiting Lahore. While it was expected that there would be some challenges to the peace talk ahead it was not expected that it would happen so soon. The debates on the terror attacks are on expected lines. Some are of the view that talks should continue while others are opposing it. Again and again it is being repeated that Pakistani Army and ISI are not on the same page as Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif. The kind of sophisticated attack that was being carried by the terrorists on the Pathankot air force base leaves little doubt that the plan was orchestrated and handled from the highest echelon of Pakistani military and Intelligence services. The question being floated is that if the army is not on board should we continue to engage with the civilian government to strengthen it or should we try to get the army onboard? It looks like India is totally clueless to this Pakistani provocation and how to deal with it. Modi government is stuck between a rock and a hard place with no one being able to tell how can we inflict a cost to this Pakistani adventurism and still not push the sub-continent to the dangers of a war and derail India’s growth story. Some are asking if India can carry out surgical strikes in the terrorists’ camps in POK, but is that a viable option. Meanwhile the clamor for a covert operation to neutralize terrorists is growing everyday but such capabilities takes years of effort and groundwork and we are not sure if India still has such capabilities. Also till the time we do not have such capabilities what options do we have against Pakistan. Also the question on why is the Pakistani Army not on board with the civilian government to bring peace to Pakistan has not been explored properly and till the time we do not understand that aspect we may not be able to put a cost on Pakistani adventurism.

Why ISI and Pakistani Army may not support peace talks?

While the hatred of Pakistani army and ISI against India may have historical roots with multiple defeats against India it is something more pressing which is making the Pakistani military establishment jittery. It is no doubt that the enemy is trying provoke India to take a strong action against it or trying to force us swallow the humiliation these terrorist attacks do to the pride of a civilian elected government. Both the options have been very well weighted in by the Pakistani military establishment or a section of the military not on board to have peaceful relations with India. The question is if we take a strong action against Pakistan does it help the Pakistani military? In my last article I mentioned how Modi government in a big strategic move has provided attack helicopters to the Afghanistani army. This particular aspect has not been debated fully and its strategic importance has been neglected. To put things in prospective it is important to discuss Operation Zarb-e-Azb which is a joint military offensive being conducted by the Pakistan Armed Forces against various militant groups in north west Pakistan. Over last decade Pakistani army has lost around 6000 security personnel and more than 50000 civilians in this war which is yet not finished. As per their own report from the Ministry of Finance (MoF) statistics and mathematical data survey collections, the economy had suffered direct and indirect losses of up to ~$67.93 billion since 2001 due to its role as a "frontline state" in the American war against terror. According to the MoF-issued Pakistan Economic Survey in 2010–2011, "Pakistan has never witnessed such a devastating social and economic upheaval in its industry, even after dismemberment of the country by a direct war with India in 1971.Things have since then improved there however the war is still far from over and new troubles have started appearing from Baluchistan. The Pakistani army is suffering on two fronts its losing men and its losing its prestige among the people of Pakistan. A war or a small conflict with India is the best possible way out of this mess of fighting the jihadi forces, putting the internal disturbances in Baluchistan to rest plus it also brings back the global attention on Kashmir issue, in case India does not resorts to an offensive strategy the Pakistani army has nothing to lose by inflicting damage to India and Indian assets by continuing the proxy war and then putting the onus of continuing the peace talk entirely on India. In fact a long term peace with India reduces the role of Pakistani army in the overall equilibrium of power politics in Pakistan and not everyone in Pak military may be conducive to that.

Therefore the option of carrying out a surgical strike in Pakistan on the terrorist camps should be weighed in properly as any such action by  India will bring together these jihadi forces together and provide them the motivation to attack India when they are currently busy killing each other. The next question therefore is if not an offensive action against Pakistan which may actually work in favor of Pakistani army which option will be the one that the Pakistani army will not want India to exercise. The attack on air force assets in Pathankot and an attack on Indian consulate on Afghanistan here give us some ample clues. It looks like Pakistani army hates the idea of India having any strategic say in Afghanistan and it is exactly this option that India should exercise.

Multi Front Options – Afghanistan, Baluchistan and Covert Operations

While Modi government made a significant change in its stand by providing the attack helicopters to the Afghanistani army the time has now come to take it further and provide a clearer military support to the afghan army. India need not fight this battle on its soil and rather strengthen the Afghanistan to stabilize the region and reduce the role of Pakistani army in that region. While till the time Americans are there providing ground troops India should not be getting up there too fast and too soon but an effort to start building a small presence with clear intent to scale it up in case of terror attacks on India will be the biggest nightmare for the Pakistani military . An immediate action on this front will give a strong message to Pakistan as well as to the domestic consistency of Modi who elected this government on the premise of a strong Indian action in case of a terrorist attack.

It is also time India rethinks about its strategy on the issue of Baluchistan. Baluch’s are looking for help and an Indian stand on Baluchistan will not just bring global attention on the plight of this issue it will also help India in dealing with Chinese investment in POK and Baluchistan where the Chinese have overlooked India’s core concern in POK.

The last is the capability to be able to carry out a covert operation to neutralize the terrorists in Pakistan. We are not aware but such a thing might be getting worked out but till that time that happens it is time that some of the options discussed above be looked into seriously.